Jack Watling, senior fellow at RUSI, discusses Russia's advantage in ammunition, Ukraine's defense struggles, and potential strategies to shift the conflict. Topics include Putin's objectives, air defense challenges, and the impact of US elections on the war.
Ukraine faces challenges with troop shortages and morale, hindering military effectiveness.
Russia employs small continuous waves of advance to spread out Ukrainian forces thin and threaten strategic targets.
Deep dives
Challenges in Ukrainian Military: Shortages and Lack of Rotation
President Volodymia Zelensky acknowledges serious shortages of troops and low morale in the Ukrainian military. The lack of reserves and empty brigades hinder normal rotations, impacting soldier morale. Ukrainian troops face difficulties in regaining ground lost to Russian forces.
Russian Offensive Strategy: Incremental Advances and Strategic Targets
The Russian military, despite numerical superiority, lacks the capability for major thrusts due to degraded quality. They employ small continuous waves of advance across multiple fronts to spread out Ukrainian forces thin. By threatening strategic targets like Kharkiv, they aim to force Ukraine into exhausting its reserves.
Implications of Western Support and Potential Scenarios
US aid to Ukraine aims to alleviate acute shortages, primarily in artillery ammunition. Rapid deployment of aid takes time and may not immediately impact the battlefield. Building Ukrainian offensives for the future could introduce risks for Russia, potentially prolonging the conflict and forcing negotiations.
Gideon discusses the state of Ukraine’s defences with Jack Watling, senior fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute. Russia’s advantage in ammunition and forces is beginning to show on the battlefield. What would it take to turn things back in Ukraine’s favour? Clip: BBC