
The Pie: An Economics Podcast At What Age Does Family Income Most Shape Your Future? Timing and Intergenerational Mobility
Jan 6, 2026
Steven Durlauf, a distinguished professor at the Harris School of Public Policy, dives into the importance of parental income timing on intergenerational mobility. He reveals that income during adolescence (ages 12-18) is a stronger predictor of adult success than early childhood income. Durlauf explores how family structure, including marital status and single-parenthood, affects income outcomes. He also discusses the significance of socioeconomic environments, proposing policy changes to combat segregation and improve mobility for future generations.
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Income Timing Beats Lifetime Average
- Parental income matters more as children age, peaking around ages 12–18 and falling after 18.
- Modeling income as a trajectory reveals age-specific elasticities that average measures hide.
Trajectory-Based Measurement Matters
- Treat parental income as a time-dependent trajectory instead of a single number to capture timing effects.
- Durlauf and coauthors estimate a function of yearly sensitivities rather than one aggregate elasticity.
Class Stickiness And Bottlenecks
- Class transitions show substantial stickiness: parental class strongly affects child's class probabilities.
- Markov chain models reveal persistence and identify combinations that create bottlenecks to mobility.




