Dire Straits – After Taiwan’s election, could China attempt a stealth takeover?
Jan 17, 2024
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Tensions are rising between China and Taiwan after Taiwan's election. China is enraged over the Taiwanese people's choice of President. The podcast explores various aspects of the conflict, including China's options for regaining the territory, the impact of Beijing's rhetoric on the election, and the future direction of China-Taiwan relations. It also discusses neighboring countries' perceptions, the impact of Trump's China policy, and China's internal problems and economic state.
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Quick takeaways
The Taiwanese people successfully resisted external pressures and voted for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, reflecting their support for Taiwan's foreign policy agenda.
Experts believe that a full-scale military invasion by China is unlikely due to various factors, including China's demographic crisis and economic slowdown, but Taiwan's defense policy transition may face challenges ahead with opposition parties.
Deep dives
Taiwanese people reaffirm their commitment to democracy
In the Taiwan presidential and parliamentary elections, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) emerged victorious, reflecting the Taiwanese people's support for the party's foreign policy agenda. The DPP's agenda includes deepening ties with like-minded democracies and vigilantly monitoring China's attempts to pressure Taiwan. Despite China's aggressive rhetoric and attempts to influence the elections, the Taiwanese people successfully resisted external pressures. This result also highlights the limited support for other opposition parties' attempts to win over voters by framing the election as a choice between war and peace.
China's increasing military presence and Taiwan's response
China has been increasing its naval presence near Taiwan in recent months, leading to concerns of potential conflict. However, experts believe that a full-scale military invasion by China is unlikely due to various factors, including China's ongoing demographic crisis and economic slowdown. Taiwan, under the DPP administration, has been reversing its defense policies, deepening collaboration with the US, and increasing its defense budget. However, Taiwanese civil society has not fully embraced these changes, and there are potential challenges ahead, with the opposition parties likely to slow down the transition in national defense policy.
Implications for neighboring countries and the global community
The outcome of Taiwan's election has broader implications for neighboring countries and the international community. Countries like the United States, Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and others in the Pacific Rim are concerned about potential tension and disruption in the region. The US, a close ally of Taiwan, has expressed support for Taiwan's democratic system and electoral process while maintaining a careful stance on independence. With China's ambitions in mind, neighboring countries are closely monitoring the situation and assessing their own positions to avoid confrontation and protect their interests. The global impact of a conflict across the Taiwan Strait would be significant, potentially affecting around 10% of global GDP.
Tensions are rising across the Taiwan Strait. China is enraged that the Taiwanese people have chosen a man Beijing calls a “troublemaker”, William Lai, as their President. Now Xi Jinping has become personally invested in regaining the territory. While a hot military conflict would be disastrous far beyond the region, China has many other options from trade blockades to naval harassment. So how far will Beijing go to achieve what it calls the “historical inevitability” of reunification with Taiwan?
Gavin Esler talks to journalist William Yang in Taipei and China expert Richard McGregor of the Lowy Institute in Sydney about a decades-old conflict that is heating up alarmingly.
• “China tried to drum up rhetoric that the election was a choice between war and peace… This sabre-rattling only worked among the older generation.” – William Yang
• “There’s not much the US could do in the short-term if China decided to move.” – Richard McGregor
• “Xi has a ton of enemies, from people whose careers he destroyed in his anticorruption campaign to more liberal Chinese… They are waiting for him to stumble.” – Richard McGregor
Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Additional music by Simon Williams. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production