Guns, Drugs and Crypto – Who’s funding the return of asymmetric warfare?
Apr 10, 2024
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Dr David Ucko and Gavin Esler discuss the resurgence of asymmetric warfare funded by the global drugs trade and crypto. Topics include the evolution of synthetic drugs, violence associated with it, and the challenges of countering non-state armed groups. The conversation also touches on the role of political violence, disrupting militant finance networks, and the complexities of counterinsurgency strategies in modern conflicts.
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Quick takeaways
Asymmetric warfare is funded by global drugs trade and crypto, posing a new challenge for security forces.
Innovative, multifaceted tactics are crucial to combat modern conflicts effectively, going beyond traditional military approaches.
Deep dives
The Risk of Unleashing Polarization
The podcast delves into the concern that the war on terrorism has led to a polarization of the world. Without a framework of multilateral agreement, this polarization might set one part of the world against another, resulting in significant distress and hardship for humanity in the future.
Success of Militarily Weaker Sides
The episode raises the question of why weaker military forces often lose battles but eventually emerge victorious in wars. Examples like Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Gaza, and Ukraine are cited to illustrate how non-state actors practice asymmetric warfare, using strategic approaches to defeat much stronger military forces.
Escalating Instability and Non-State Armed Actors
A warning is highlighted from a recent Brookings Institution report, predicting growing instability caused by non-state actors and illegal economies in 2024. Instability intensification is already observable across regions like the Middle East and West Africa due to conflicts like the Gaza War, impacting countries from the Red Sea to the Americas.
Challenges in Counterinsurgency Strategies
The discussions emphasize the complexities of counterinsurgency strategies and the changing nature of warfare. Past experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan showcase the limitations of traditional military approaches. The need for innovative, multifaceted tactics, including political, economic, and informational strategies, is stressed to effectively combat modern conflicts.
Why does the militarily weaker side lose many battles but often win the war? In the 21st Century the David-vs-Goliath threat of asymmetric warfare – where small non-state militias and terror groups defeat vastly better armed nation states in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere – is back. Now armed groups including Yemen’s Houthi, Hamas and Islamic State are growing and re-energised by a vast new funding sources: the global drugs trade, and even crypto.
Gavin Esler speaks to Dr David Ucko – professor at the College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University – and counterinsurgency and organised crime expert Vanda Felbab-Brown to find out why asymmetric warfare has returned, who’s funding it… and whether we can ever defeat it.
• “We have put a lot of stock in fences and walls which may soon prove inadequate. What if you can fly a drone from North Africa with pinpoint accuracy into a civilian airport?” – Dr David Ucko
• “A global revolution in synthetic drugs is sweeping the world… and everywhere it’s associated with intensified violence.” – Vanda Felbab-Brown
• “If we ignore this, then you get the Wagner Group and other players trying to do their thing, as we see in the Sahel and across Africa.” – Dr David Ucko
Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.
*The views of Dr David Ucko belong to the contributor and do not represent the views of the Department of Defense or its components or the USF administration or its component.