Economic complexity is a measure of a country's knowledge and capabilities, assessed by looking at the diversity and complexity of its exports.
Higher economic complexity relative to income level predicts faster future growth, while lower complexity predicts slower growth.
Diversification and increasing complexity are achieved through exploiting existing capabilities, migration, and government support, with opportunities in decarbonization for future growth.
Deep dives
Economic complexity as a measure of societal knowledge
Economic complexity is a measure of how much a country or society knows how to do. It assesses the knowledge and capabilities of a society by looking at the diversity and complexity of its exports. Just as individuals have different levels of knowledge and expertise, societies also vary in their collective knowledge. Economic complexity takes into account the range of different products a country can produce and the difficulty in making those products.
The role of complexity in predicting economic growth
Economic complexity is not only a measure of current knowledge and capabilities but also a predictor of future growth. Countries that have higher complexity relative to their income level tend to grow faster in the future, while countries with lower complexity relative to their income level tend to grow less. This suggests that increasing complexity is associated with economic development and the ability to move up the value chain.
Factors influencing complexity and diversification
Countries diversify and increase their complexity by moving towards their adjacent possibilities, exploiting the cognitive proximity of their existing capabilities. Migration can also play a role in diversification by introducing new knowledge and expertise. Additionally, government policies that provide necessary public goods and support the development of industries can facilitate diversification and complexity growth. Some industries, such as manufacturing, offer more opportunities for complexity and diversification compared to others, like raw commodity exports.
Decarbonization and its impact on complexity
Decarbonization, the shift towards reducing carbon emissions, will reshape global economies and alter the structure of global demand. Countries that can provide green technologies and products necessary for decarbonization will experience growth and complexity in those areas. This transition presents both challenges and opportunities for countries to position themselves in the emerging green industries.
Examples of complexity trends and future growth opportunities
According to the Atlas of Economic Complexity, countries like China, Vietnam, Uganda, and India are projected to experience significant growth in the future. On the other hand, the United States has seen a decline in complexity, indicating a reliance on global value chains for sophisticated products. Future growth opportunities lie in industries related to decarbonization, such as renewable energy technologies and green infrastructure.
Why do some countries become rich while others stagnate? And can you predict which countries become wealthy in advance of them actually increasing their collective GDP? The answer may lie in the complexity of each nation's domestic economy. On this episode we speak with Ricardo Hausmann, a professor and director of the Growth Lab at Harvard University. He helps us understand what economic complexity is, how it's measured, and the process by which countries can move from being less complex to more complex over time.