Plain English with Derek Thompson

Could a Housing Recession Take Down the U.S. Economy?

Nov 3, 2023

Conor Sen, a Bloomberg columnist known for his incisive economic analysis, dives into the state of the U.S. economy. The discussion highlights the surprising resilience of economic growth despite looming threats like high interest rates and a cooling housing market. Sen identifies five major risks to future growth, including the fallout from a recession in apartment construction. He also explores the correlation between rising rates and shifting dynamics in the housing and auto industries, making predictions for 2024 that could shape financial strategies.

37:01

Episode guests

Conor Sen

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Highlights

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Quick takeaways

The availability of easy gains in the labor market may decrease, impacting future growth in the US economy.

Continued higher interest rates could cool off investments in the housing market, potentially hampering economic growth in 2024.

Concerns loom over the auto industry as higher interest rates affect car leases and transitioning to electric vehicles, leading to profitability and growth challenges for some manufacturers.

Deep dives

The Low-Hanging Fruit in the Labor Market is Diminishing

The US economy has benefitted from the return of many sidelined workers and the normalization of supply chains, leading to robust growth. However, in 2024, the availability of easy gains in the labor market may decrease, which could impact future growth.

The Impact of Higher Interest Rates on the Economy

01:50

The Shockingly Resilient US Economy: Defying Expert Predictions

01:15

Intro

6min

Navigating Economic Growth Amid Rising Rates

11min

Rising Interest Rates and Their Ripple Effects on Housing and Auto Industries

4min

Navigating the EV Flux

6min

Interest Rates, Government Spending, and Global Economic Turmoil

3min

Navigating Economic Predictions

6min

One year ago, it was a matter of conventional wisdom among experts that the U.S. was on the brink of a recession. They were wrong. The latest GDP report showed America’s real output growing at a 4.9 percent annualized rate. That's huge. But just as we zagged a year ago, when we criticized recession predictions, I want to zag again today. It is a matter of broad conventional wisdom that the U.S. economy right now is doing really well. And, for now, it is. But challenges abound, including "higher-for-longer" interest rates, a recession in the apartment construction market, and ongoing global mayhem. Bloomberg columnist Conor Sen counts the five biggest risks to economic growth in the next year—and makes his official economic prediction for 2024.

If you have questions, observations, or ideas for future episodes, email us at PlainEnglish@Spotify.com.

Host: Derek Thompson

Guest: Conor Sen

Producer: Devon Manze

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Plain English with Derek Thompson

Could a Housing Recession Take Down the U.S. Economy?

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

The Low-Hanging Fruit in the Labor Market is Diminishing

Risks of Higher Interest Rates on the Economy

Auto Industry's Challenges and EV Transition

The US Federal Deficit and its Impact

Geopolitical and Global Economic Instability

The Impact of Higher Interest Rates on the Economy

The Shockingly Resilient US Economy: Defying Expert Predictions

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts