Time to Get Ahead of the Downturn? With Ben Miller
Oct 20, 2023
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Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, discusses the market reaction to surging interest rates, the odds of recession, and the Great Lag thesis. Strategies for surviving a real estate downturn, the lag between interest rates and market decline, and being defensive in the current market are explored. The Federal Reserve's actions and the importance of reputation and relationships in the tech industry are also discussed.
The bond market is identified as the most important factor driving the economy, with concerns about the impact of increased supply on yields.
Investing in earlier stage tech companies that are driving innovation and creating the future is emphasized as a valuable opportunity in the current market conditions.
Deep dives
Market environment and bond market control
The podcast discusses the current market environment, with a focus on the bond market and its influence over other aspects of the economy. It highlights the volatility and quick moves in bonds as market participants navigate economic uncertainty and changing views on recession risks. The bond market is identified as the most important factor driving the economy. The discussion also touches on the relationship between supply and demand in the treasury market, with concerns about the impact of increased supply on yields.
Potential risk event and rising treasuries
Guests express concern about a potential large risk event and discuss the impact of rising treasury yields. The discussion emphasizes the historical relationship between rising rates and market downturns, pointing out the lag between rate increases and the subsequent market collapse. It is suggested that the equity market is currently lagging behind the bond market in terms of reflecting the impact of rising rates. There is a conversation around the potential role of the Federal Reserve in intervening to stabilize markets and prevent a full-blown crisis.
Downturn expectations and preparing for the fallout
The podcast presents a cautious outlook on the market, predicting another crunch or crisis in the near future. It emphasizes the trajectory of declining liquidity in the market and the potential implications for various sectors. The focus is on the need for defense rather than offense, with recommendations to reduce leverage and have wider stops to weather the impending downturn. The real estate market is highlighted as an area experiencing declining demand and increasing capitulation, indicating potential challenges in the commercial real estate sector.
Investment opportunities in private tech companies
The podcast discusses the potential investment opportunities in private tech companies, specifically those involved in AI and foundational technologies driving the AI revolution. The guest emphasizes the importance of fundamental investments over cyclical investments given the current market conditions and the expected downturn. The focus is on investing in earlier stage tech companies that are driving innovation and creating the future, with an emphasis on the value of accessing investments that are not accessible to the public.
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Ben Miller, co-founder, and CEO of Fundrise, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the market reaction to surging interest rates and their economic consequences, the odds of recession and how one might play out, and why his Great Lag thesis suggests a more drawn-out period of uncertainty than many investors expect. You can find more of Ben's work here: www.fundrise.com
Today's episode is sponsored by KraneShares KCCA ETF, the largest, most liquid, and only public market California allowance ETF. Please read the prospectus before investing in KraneShares. Learn more about the KCCA ETF here: https://kraneshares.com/KCCA/realvision. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. KCCA is distributed by SEI Investment Distribution Company (SIDCO).
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