US shares weaker on tech forecasts. UK markets judge budget.
Oct 31, 2024
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In this discussion, Skye Masters, NAB’s market strategist with expertise in both Australian and global markets, shares insights on the recent volatility in US shares tied to disappointing tech forecasts despite strong earnings. She dives into the implications of rising UK bond yields due to increased spending and potential inflation. Skye also highlights consumer trends, retail sales contrasts between Australia and the US, and the impact of upcoming economic data on market sentiment. A must-listen for anyone following financial trends!
US tech earnings showed mixed results, with Apple disappointing while Intel exceeded expectations, yet overall market sentiment remained bearish.
UK markets are reacting to increased bond yields post-budget announcement, reflecting concerns over inflation and small business stability.
Deep dives
Market Reactions to Earnings Reports
Recent earnings reports from major tech companies have yielded mixed reactions in the stock market. Apple reported a Q4 revenue of just under $25 billion, falling short of predictions, leading to a 1.4% decline in its share price. Conversely, Intel exceeded expectations with a revenue of $13.28 billion, but a lower margin caused the share to remain volatile despite a 12% rise in after-hours trading. Meanwhile, the performance of companies like Amazon, which showed stronger than expected sales, contrasted sharply with the overall bearish trend seen in indices like the Nasdaq, which fell by 2.8%.
Economic Indicators and Consumer Spending Trends
Recent economic data suggests a resilient US economy despite fears of a slowdown. The core PCE for September aligned with expectations and indicated increasing inflationary pressures in core goods spending. Additionally, personal spending continues to outpace income growth, indicating that consumers are relying on savings, even though concerns about sustainability remain. Recent jobless claims dropped significantly to their lowest since April, further painting a picture of robustness in the labor market.
Global Economic Influences and Market Expectations
The recent UK budget announcement has resulted in increased bond yields and uncertainty regarding small businesses, highlighting mixed reactions within the market. In addition, the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates drew attention, especially amid downgraded CPI forecasts and a hawkish tone regarding potential future hikes. Meanwhile, China's manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, showing signs of recovery linked to anticipated stimulus measures. With looming events like the US election and non-farm payrolls, market participants are notably cautious and adjusting their positions ahead of these significant indicators.
Some big market moves overnight, with sharp falls in US equities. Markets are clearly not impressed with the forecasts that came with the strong earnings results this week. In the UK bond yields are markedly higher, particularly at the front end. NAB’s Skye Masters says there are concerns that the extra spending could boost inflation. The focus now is on tonight’s US jobs data, before a week that includes THAT election.