Ep 168: Nadège Rolland on China’s Vision of Strategic Space
Jan 7, 2025
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Nadège Rolland, a renowned expert on Chinese strategic issues and author of Mapping China's Strategic Space, offers insights into China’s geopolitical landscape. She discusses the formation of mental maps by Chinese strategists, historical perspectives from Mao, and the implications of perceived encirclement by the U.S. The conversation also touches on China's Arctic ambitions, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the delicate balance of asserting regional power while avoiding overextension. Rolland's analysis reveals the complexities shaping China's global aspirations.
China's strategic elites envision a comprehensive geopolitical framework that includes territorial, ideological, and economic dimensions to assert global influence.
The evolution of China's strategic thinking highlights a transition from Mao's counterimperialism to a modern focus on infrastructure and governance norms amid resource constraints.
Deep dives
Understanding Strategic Space
Leaders and strategists develop mental maps that inform their understanding of global strategic spaces, impacting their political and military decisions. The historical context of American strategic thought, particularly during World War II, illustrates how nations define their spheres of influence for resource access and defense. Similarly, Chinese strategists adopt and adapt these concepts to envision a broader strategic space that extends beyond national borders, aiming to establish China as a global power. This strategic perspective encompasses not only geographic territory but also ideological and economic dimensions to foster national growth and survival.
Evolution of China's Strategic Thinking
China's strategic thinking has evolved significantly from Mao's era to the present, transitioning from a geopolitical theory linked to counterimperialism to embracing classical geopolitics after the Cold War. The revival of interest in geopolitics in the late 20th century allowed Chinese strategists to re-examine historical lessons from great powers, emphasizing the importance of both land and maritime strategies. As China emerged post-Cold War, discussions around national power and soft power strategies became central, leading to an analytical approach in understanding its position relative to other great powers. The early 21st century marked a period where China began quantifying its comprehensive national power and conceptualizing its strategic environment amid its rising influence.
Belt and Road Initiative and Geopolitical Roots
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is often seen as a hallmark of Xi Jinping's administration, but its underlying geopolitical concepts date back several years prior. Notably, China's assertive actions in regions like the South China Sea began under Hu Jintao's leadership, illustrating a longer-term vision of geopolitical expansion. These discussions highlight a consistent pattern of thinking about expanding China's influence through infrastructure and economic initiatives beyond mere territorial ambition. The report emphasizes that the strategic logic of the BRI and its elements are deeply rooted in China's historical narrative of power dynamics and geopolitical maneuvers.
Challenges and Future Directions
Chinese strategists face the challenge of navigating their expansive aspirations within the constraints of limited resources and the geopolitical realities of global power dynamics. There is a growing concern about overextension as China seeks to assert its influence on multiple fronts, including ideological and governance dimensions. While historical aspirations of a quasi-global presence have been discussed, strategists must now consider the potential recalibration of goals in light of shifting economic prospects and rising tensions. Consequently, China may focus more on shaping governance norms and ideological representation in international forums rather than solely pursuing expansive infrastructure projects.
Nadège Rolland, Distinguished Fellow, China Studies, at the National Bureau of Asian Research and author of Mapping China's Strategic Space, joins the show to discuss how to better understand the geopolitical premises of China’s strategic elites.