UBS On-Air: Market Moves
Macro Monthly Podcast with UBS Asset Management - 2024 Outlook edition
Dec 20, 2023
Evan Brown, Portfolio Manager, and Tom Digenan, Head of Americas Investment Solutions Specialists, discuss their macro outlook for the year, including growth, inflation, and potential recession. They highlight the resilience of private sector balance sheets, economic developments in different regions, and risks to the outlook such as labor market cooling and inflation. They also express optimism for the year 2024.
12:42
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Quick takeaways
- The team's macro outlook for 2024 predicts a soft landing in the economy with growth holding up, inflation coming down, and consumers continuing to spend, supported by healthy real incomes and resilient private sector balance sheets.
- Europe's economic performance is affected by sluggishness in consumer spending due to the Russia-Ukraine War and natural gas shock, but positive developments in real incomes, strong employment, and falling inflation contribute to a moderate outlook, with export dependency on China playing a role.
Deep dives
Outlook for 2024: Soft Landing with Declining Inflation
The team's macro outlook for 2024 is characterized by a soft landing in the economy, with growth holding up and inflation coming down. Real incomes are growing at a healthy rate, allowing consumers to continue spending. The resilience of private sector balance sheets suggests that businesses and consumers are not overextended, reducing the risk of a recession. The Federal Reserve has acknowledged the progress in inflation reduction and is actively discussing rate cuts, which could further support economic growth.
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