Global Data Pod
Global Data Pod Weekender: Turn of the screw
Apr 17, 2025
Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton dive into the booming goods sector, yet caution around recession looms. They debate the potential fallout of increasing tariffs and the mixed signals from economic indicators. The impact of tax policy on GDP is scrutinized, alongside the unique challenges facing small businesses. They discuss global sentiment shifts and the squeezing effect of geopolitical tensions, particularly from the Ukraine conflict, on the economy. Overall, the conversation captures a landscape rich in uncertainty and complexity.
38:01
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Quick takeaways
- The podcast emphasizes a strong economic performance in the first quarter, but warns about potential recession risks linked to trade policies and sentiment shifts.
- Concerns about declining business sentiment and its impact on purchasing power highlight the complex interplay between local and global economic dynamics.
Deep dives
Economic Growth and Resilience
The potential for both the US and global economy to enter a recession is acknowledged, yet it is emphasized that such an outcome is not expected in the immediate future. There are signs of strong economic data, particularly in the first quarter, with a projection of a roughly 5% gain in global industrial production, which would be the strongest performance in over three years. Despite slower consumption rates in the US, robust import levels and increased business spending suggest underlying economic health. China also exhibits notable growth, with a projected 7% increase quarterly, further contributing to the global optimistic outlook.
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