Episode 4: Inflation, Jobs, and the Path to U.S. Rate Cuts

This year kicked off with financial markets expecting multiple rate cuts from the Fed, as a slowing trend in jobs growth and easing inflation expectations closed out 2023. But the first quarter revealed a series of upside surprises to inflation, giving rise to the prospect that interest rates might well remain “higher for longer”. Why has everyone —from policymakers to pundits —consistently underestimated inflation this time around?

Join Citi’s Lucy Baldwin, Global Head of Citi Research, and Andrew Hollenhorst, U.S. Chief Economist, as they break down the dynamics of the current environment, including why the labor market is the linchpin for the economy overall.

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