In this conversation, Tom Keene, co-host of Bloomberg Surveillance, and Michael McKee, international economics and policy correspondent, break down Jerome Powell's recent speech at Jackson Hole. They explore the event's significance in shaping monetary policy, the surprising trends in inflation and employment, and how this year compares to past gatherings. The duo shares personal anecdotes, navigates economic complexities, and discusses the intriguing dynamics between media, analysts, and the evolving financial landscape, all while reflecting on their experiences amid Idaho's stunning scenery.
Central bankers are facing uncertainties due to the failure of the Phillips curve and complexities in the current economic landscape.
Jackson Hole is a significant event where central bankers discuss longer-term analytical frameworks for monetary policy, although media attention often focuses on short-term policy outlook.
Deep dives
Uncertainty and Uneasiness in Central Banking
Central bankers are facing an unusual time characterized by a decrease in inflation despite a robust labor market and an acceleration in economic growth that defies expectation. The Phillips curve, which suggests that inflation should rise as unemployment falls, has failed to hold true. This has left central bankers puzzled and anxious about the persistence of disinflation. The situation is further complicated by other factors, such as supply chain pressures and housing conditions, which are outside the traditional purview of central banks. The complexities of the current economic landscape have left central bankers uncertain about the future.
Jackson Hole: A Blend of Academic and Practical Perspectives
Jackson Hole has become a significant event in central banking, where academic discussions on longer-term analytical frameworks for monetary policy take place. However, the focus of media attention often leans towards the short-term policy outlook rather than the academic discussions. While the Chairman's speeches have the potential to make headlines and shape market expectations, some years are more famous than others in terms of academic depth. This year's emphasis was on economic outlook, but there is no guarantee that next year's conference will continue in the same vein.
Reading Material and Complexity
Amidst the uncertainty, central bankers are advised to read and stay informed about the material discussed at Jackson Hole. The discussions revolve around academic papers, economic theories, and predictions about the future. While media coverage often focuses on shorter-term implications, the more profound discussions at the conference delve into the complexities of the economic landscape. Staying informed is crucial for central bankers to navigate the uncertainties and make well-informed decisions.
The Future Path of Monetary Policy
The path of monetary policy in the coming months depends on various factors. Moderate inflation, on top of base effects, may prompt the Fed to maintain its current stance, closely watching inflation and unemployment rates leading up to the November meeting. If the data indicate the need for action, the Fed may consider rate increases. How the Fed communicates its plans will also be crucial in managing expectations and preventing premature assumptions about the Fed's future stance. The economic landscape remains uncertain, making future monetary policy decisions a complex task.
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave his much-anticipated speech at the Kansas City Fed Monetary Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. While many were expecting some kind of academic or theoretical discussion, the text was straightforwardly about the current path of monetary policy. So what did we learn? What actually happens at Jackson Hole? And how did this year's event fit in with prior years? On this episode, we turn to two of our colleagues, Bloomberg Surveillance co-host Tom Keene as well as Michael McKee, international economics and policy correspondent for Bloomberg Television. We discuss the speech, the whole event, and how 2023 compares and contrasts with previous editions of the event.