Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 247: Julia Azari on Trump’s Second Term, Constraints and Priorities
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Dec 20, 2024 Julia Azari, a Political Science Professor at Marquette University and contributor to major outlets, dives into the political dynamics surrounding Trump's potential second term. She discusses the implications of recent election results on the GOP's evolution and Trump's executive powers. Azari highlights the tension between Congress and Trump's administration, the ambitious immigration proposals facing bureaucratic hurdles, and the shift in tariff policies that challenge traditional Republican ideals. The impact of changing presidential mandates within racial dynamics is also explored.
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Trump's Victory Analysis
- Trump's victory was broad but shallow, mirroring incumbents' losses globally.
- The results align with political science predictions based on structural factors.
Trump's Power Dynamics
- Trump may consolidate power not through legal means but political co-optation of other branches, similar to FDR.
- The Senate GOP's 'Trumpification' plays a significant role, despite some members showing independence.
Congressional Incentives
- Historically, Congress opposed presidents due to decentralized parties and institutional prerogative.
- Senators, feeling a responsibility to their constituents and the Constitution, sometimes pushed back against presidential overreach.