Ep. 247: Julia Azari on Trump’s Second Term, Constraints and Priorities
Dec 20, 2024
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Julia Azari, a Political Science Professor at Marquette University and contributor to major outlets, dives into the political dynamics surrounding Trump's potential second term. She discusses the implications of recent election results on the GOP's evolution and Trump's executive powers. Azari highlights the tension between Congress and Trump's administration, the ambitious immigration proposals facing bureaucratic hurdles, and the shift in tariff policies that challenge traditional Republican ideals. The impact of changing presidential mandates within racial dynamics is also explored.
Trump's electoral success indicates strong voter support but raises questions about his ability to achieve overwhelming popularity and public approval.
The dynamics of Trump's second term could lead to an empowered executive pursuing a personal agenda, potentially unrestrained by electoral consequences.
Deep dives
Analyzing Trump's Electoral Victory
Trump's recent victory in the election showcased broad support among voters, but initial perceptions of a landslide begin to fade as vote tallies continue. Political analysts suggest that while Trump may have gained a substantial number of votes, he did not achieve overwhelming popularity, with questions remaining on whether he will surpass 50% of the popular vote. This outcome aligns with political science fundamentals, indicating that such results often accompany an unpopular incumbent party. The intricate relationship between candidates and their parties, particularly regarding public perception, remains vital to understanding these election dynamics.
The Shifting Landscape of Presidential Power
The conversation highlights a potential shift towards a more powerful executive branch under Trump, paralleling historical trends seen during the early 2000s under George W. Bush. The discussion reveals two avenues for expanding presidential power: legally defining the executive's authority and politically integrating with Congress to modify operational incentives. Although Trump has consolidated support within the Republican Party, several senators showcase a distinct willingness to oppose his unconventional cabinet choices, indicating a nuanced balance of power. This friction between Trump and some congressional members suggests a complex landscape for presidential authority going forward.
The Influence of Term Limits on Governance
Traditionally, second-term presidents face diminished authority as they become lame ducks, and history shows that they often overreach. Trump's second term may differ as he lacks re-election concerns, which could lead to heightened motivations for pursuing a personal agenda without electoral repercussions. Analysts ponder whether this last term could see Trump prioritize vengeful goals or explore drastic policy changes without the constraints of public approval. The historical understanding of president dynamics during second terms will play a critical role in predicting potential outcomes for Trump's governance.
Implications of Policy Directions and Appointments
Trump's cabinet selections indicate a preference for individuals aligned with his vision rather than the traditional Republican establishment, hinting at a shift in governance dynamics. The cabinet's effectiveness in executing policies, alongside their dependence on Trump's direction, raises questions about their actual influence in the administration. The discussion reveals that while Trump's administration seeks to implement far-reaching policies, the complexities of governance require attention to established bureaucratic processes and institutional relationships. Observing how the administration navigates these complexities, particularly amid polarized party dynamics, will be crucial for assessing policy efficacy.
Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate’. She is a regular contributor to FiveThirtyEight.com, Politico, and The Washington Post. This episode covers what election results tell us about US politics, Trump’s executive power vs control over party, how Congress may push back on Trump, and much more.