Future of Science and Technology Q&A (August 30, 2024)
Oct 1, 2024
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Stephen Wolfram, a leading computer scientist and creator of the Wolfram Language, dives into the future of science and technology. He discusses the intriguing possibilities of machine learning in creating new genera and the complexities of genetic modification. Wolfram sheds light on information sourcing in research, questioning how to responsibly cite AI-generated data. He also explores the impact of quantum computing on sustainable textiles and the integration of memory in large language models to enhance performance. The conversation tackles authenticity in AI-generated content and the future of technology.
The podcast emphasizes that while machine learning can facilitate small-scale biological changes, it currently lacks the capacity to produce significant genetic alterations or new genera.
A significant discussion on the ethics of citing AI-generated content surfaces, highlighting the need for established guidelines to credit original sources versus AI synthesizers in research.
Predictions for AI advancements by 2029 suggest gradual improvements in technology rather than groundbreaking innovations, emphasizing optimization over radical transformations in user capabilities.
Deep dives
Genetic Modification and New Genera
The discussion highlights the process of biological evolution and how it leads to the creation of new genera through incremental genomic changes. Organisms that can reproduce more effectively than their counterparts tend to dominate a population due to these small genetic modifications. While specific genetic editing, such as inserting jellyfish genes into plants, is achievable, larger-scale changes that create entirely new traits or forms, like a walking plant, remain unattainable with current technology. The speaker indicates that most biological traits are influenced by numerous genes scattered across the genome, complicating efforts to engineer major evolutionary changes.
Machine Learning and Computational Irreducibility
Machine learning is examined in relation to its capacity to create significant biological changes, with the conclusion that it falls short in this area. The speaker explains that evolution involves complex computations that machine learning, as currently understood, cannot simplify or directly manipulate. Instead, machine learning is effective for small, incremental changes but cannot produce vast alterations in biological traits due to its limitations in handling computational irreducibility. The challenges in using machine learning for biological advancements emphasize the need for deeper knowledge and possibly new methods in genetic engineering.
Information Gathering and AI Responsibility
The podcast explores the future of information gathering and the ethics of citing AI-generated content. It raises the question of whom to credit for information—the original source or the AI that synthesized it. Responsible entities, like Wolfram Alpha, take accountability for the accuracy of their data, whereas platforms like Twitter do not, making attribution more complex. The speaker suggests that, in academia and research, clear guidelines will need to be established for citing AI contributions to ensure accountability.
Future Prospects of AI by 2029
Predictions for AI advancements by 2029 suggest incremental improvements rather than groundbreaking revelations. Historical trends show that significant developments in machine learning come in bursts, followed by periods of stability before the next innovation arises. While optimization of AI technologies will likely allow them to run on more accessible devices, these advancements are not expected to yield entirely new capabilities. The integration of conversational AI with robust computational tools may enhance user interaction, making technology more user-friendly but not radically transformative.
Validating Digital Content in the Age of AI
As AI-generated content becomes more prevalent, concerns arise about its potential to deceive audiences. The speaker discusses how emerging technologies, like QR codes and metadata, could help ensure the authenticity of digital images and information. Additionally, potential measures, like automated systems to validate the origin of content, are suggested as ways to maintain trust in online platforms. The complexity of discerning truth from misinformation emphasizes the need for new protocols and standards to navigate the digital landscape effectively.
Stephen Wolfram answers questions from his viewers about the future of science and technology as part of an unscripted livestream series, also available on YouTube here: https://wolfr.am/youtube-sw-qa
Questions include: What are your thoughts on machine learning to create new genera? Like what would be a good way to go about doing something like that? Like a new genera of plants/animals? - Can you talk about the future of information gathering and research? Say I am discussing with a robot a paper I am writing and the robot is providing examples and evidence to support my arguments–do I cite the robot as my source? Or do I have to find where the robot got the information? - How advanced do you think AI available to consumers (like ChatGPT) will be by August 2029? - Hello, Dr. Wolfram. My name is Grace and I'm currently preparing to pursue a PhD in fiber science. My research interests lie at the intersection of computational materials science and sustainable textile innovation. I have a background in pharmaceutical sciences. I've recently been exploring how advanced computational methods can be applied to fiber science, specifically in developing smart and sustainable textiles. How do you foresee quantum computing impacting the modeling and simulation of complex fibers and polymers? - What's your take on integrating memory into LLMs to enable retention across sessions? How could this impact their performance and capabilities? - What are your intuitions about the AI-generated fake content to deceive people, whether using deep fake face swaps or voice cloning or one or more things combined? Are we rapidly approaching a point where we won't be able to trust anything on the internet? - When do you expect the discovery of life on an exoplanet? - Is the hype around LLMs dying, finally relegating the toys to the toy box where they belong, or do you think anyone will ever be able to make them useful and accurate? - Do you think future cars will be able to get rid of wheels? - What algorithms changed the world the most? What's the next algorithm that will change the world? How does one release such an algorithm so that the result is positive?
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