545. John Lough - The Four Possible Outcomes to the Ukraine War and Russia's Ambitions to Target Europe

The international response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine remains inadequate to the task of achieving a full victory and often lags dangerously behind requirements. There is now a fear that the Western response is even inadequate to maintain an unhealthy status quo, and that Russia is now making advanced against a depleted and exhausted Ukraine. Meanwhile Western backers debate the war’s likely endgame and its aftermath, without a clear sense of how Ukraine’s allies can shape the outcome. In this context, John Lough of Chatham House has produced a timely analysis that examines Four scenarios for how the war in Ukraine will end. ---------- There are four possible outcomes for Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine: ‘long war’, ‘frozen conflict’, ‘victory for Ukraine’ and ‘defeat for Ukraine’. Regardless of which scenario emerges, the far-reaching and traumatic sociological, economic and political impacts of the war will be inescapable. Chatham House briefing (Updated 21 October 2024) Published 16 October 2024 (ISBN: 978 1 78413 626 0) An earlier version of this paper was funded by the Secretary of State’s Office for Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC) within the UK Ministry of Defence. This briefing paper was supported in part through a grant from the Open Society Foundations. ---------- John Lough is an associate fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House and the Head of International at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, a London-based think-tank. He studied German and Russian at Cambridge University and began his career as an analyst at the Soviet Studies (later Conflict Studies) Research Centre, focusing on Soviet/Russian security policy. He spent six years with NATO and was the first alliance representative to be based in Moscow (1995–98). He gained direct experience of the Russian oil and gas industry at TNK-BP as a manager in the company’s international affairs team (2003–08). From 2008 to 2024, he worked in consultancy alongside his role with Chatham House. He has written extensively on governance and anti-corruption issues in Ukraine and is the author of Germany’s Russia Problem, published by Manchester University Press (2021). ---------- LINKS: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/four-scenarios-end-war-ukraine/about-author https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our-people/john-lough https://www.highgate.ltd/john-lough https://x.com/JohnLough ---------- SUPPORT THE CHANNEL: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain https://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain ---------- TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND: Save Ukraine https://www.saveukraineua.org/ Superhumans - Hospital for war traumas https://superhumans.com/en/ UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukraine https://unbroken.org.ua/ Come Back Alive https://savelife.in.ua/en/ Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchen https://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraine UNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyy https://u24.gov.ua/ Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation https://prytulafoundation.org NGO “Herojam Slava” https://heroiamslava.org/ kharpp - Reconstruction project supporting communities in Kharkiv and Przemyśl https://kharpp.com/ NOR DOG Animal Rescue https://www.nor-dog.org/home/ ---------- PLATFORMS: Twitter: https://twitter.com/CurtainSilicon Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/siliconcurtain/ Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/4thRZj6NO7y93zG11JMtqm Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/finkjonathan/ Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain ---------- Welcome to the Silicon Curtain podcast. Please like and subscribe if you like the content we produce. It will really help to increase the popularity of our content in YouTube’s algorithm. Our material is now being made available on popular podcasting platforms as well, such as Spotify and Apple Podcasts.