The Memo by Howard Marks

Sea Change

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Dec 13, 2022
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ANECDOTE

Nifty Fifty Losses

  • In 1969, many banks focused on the 'Nifty Fifty', believing no price was too high.
  • These stocks, considered the best, lost over 90% by 1974, proving quality doesn't guarantee safety.
INSIGHT

Risk-Return Mindset

  • A major shift occurred with the adoption of risk-return thinking in investing.
  • Investors now evaluate risk relative to return, a significant change from 50 years ago.
ANECDOTE

Volcker's Inflation Fight

  • The 1973 oil embargo triggered rapid inflation, exacerbated by automatic cost-of-living adjustments.
  • Paul Volcker's 20% Fed funds rate in 1980 finally brought inflation under control.
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