Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

#84 Estonia’s Ex-Air Force Chief Jaak Tarien: This Is How You Really Deal With Russian Violations

Sep 24, 2025
Jaak Tarien, a former Brigadier General and ex-Commander of the Estonian Air Force, delves into recent Russian drone and jet incursions. He analyzes Poland's response to drone threats and advocates for affordable, layered defenses over costly missiles. Jaak shares insights on NATO's air policing strategies and why de-escalation is vital when intercepting Russian jets. He emphasizes the Kremlin's motives behind provocations and stresses the importance of NATO's united response to prevent fear and division among democracies.
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INSIGHT

Drones As Political Probes

  • Jaak Tarien frames the Polish drone incident as a deliberate Russian probe to provoke and sow fear in the West.
  • The drones lacked warheads and had extra fuel, indicating political provocation without triggering Article 5.
ADVICE

Prioritize Identification Over Immediate Fire

  • In peacetime NATO prioritizes visual identification and caution before kinetic action to avoid hitting friendly or civilian aircraft.
  • Declare restricted airspace and use ground-based measures to cheaply exclude non-hostile traffic before firing.
ADVICE

Build Cheap Autonomous Interceptors

  • Develop autonomous optical guidance and interceptor drones to counter jamming and mass drone attacks affordably.
  • Add autonomous terminal-phase guidance to raise hit rates and free operators to engage more targets faster.
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