Pollster Patrick Ruffini joins Freddy Gray to discuss the 2024 US election. They delve into the disconnect between the strong economy and Biden's poll numbers, the potential for a 'flip election', the role of postal voting, and the similarities between the 2024 and 2020 elections.
Improved economy does not translate into support for Biden, who needs to narrow the gap on economic issues to carry the day with his other campaign issues.
Republicans are seen as more trusted on the economy, Biden needs to motivate their base and attract independent voters on economic matters.
Deep dives
Biden's struggle to gain support despite improving economic sentiment
Despite rising consumer sentiment and optimism about the American economy, Joe Biden has not seen a significant political upside from this. The improved economic numbers do not seem to translate into support for Biden. This may be due to people's perception of the pre-COVID Trump economy, which was viewed favorably. Biden's challenge is not necessarily to beat Trump on the economic issue, but to narrow the gap enough so that his other campaign issues can carry the day.
Perception of Republicans being trusted on the economy
There is a perception that Republicans are more trusted on the economy, which has been reinforced by Trump's ability to project confidence and control over events. Biden, on the other hand, may be seen as hapless and not fully in control. Trump's confidence and salesmanship give him an advantage in how he is perceived. Democrats will need to find a way to motivate their base and attract independent voters who traditionally lean toward Republicans on economic matters.
Shifts in Trump's multiracial coalition
Trump has experienced a significant shift in his support among non-white voters, particularly among Hispanics. While Biden continues to maintain a strong advantage among African Americans, Trump has made gains among Hispanics, narrowing the margin. However, much of the movement is among younger and lower propensity voters. The challenge for Trump is to mobilize these voters effectively, as they may not turn out in high numbers.
Impact of postal voting and the upcoming election
Postal voting played a significant role in the 2020 election due to the pandemic. In 2024, it is expected that there will be a smaller percentage of mail-in ballots, but higher than historical trends. Republicans have recognized the need to be competitive with mail-in votes and are trying to target voters who are likely to vote by mail. Democrats, on the other hand, may prefer a low turnout election with a mood of depression hanging over it, to maximize their chances of success.
Freddy Gray is joined by pollster and writer Patrick Ruffini. They talk about why the strengthening economy isn’t improving Biden’s numbers, and the other factors that will influence the 2024 election.
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