In this lively discussion, guests Tom Miller, an analyst at Gavekal Research, Isabel Hilton, founder of China Dialogue, and architect Austin Williams tackle hot-button issues surrounding China's recent economic downturn. They explore whether the slowdown reveals true decline or merely a western bias. The panel also dives into China's changing cultural landscape under strict governance, the implications of its aging population, and a shift in the Belt and Road Initiative towards sustainability, all while questioning what it means for the nation's future.
China faces significant economic challenges, such as slowing growth and rising youth unemployment, raising questions about its future prospects.
Despite domestic troubles, China continues to assert its geopolitical presence as a major investor in developing regions worldwide.
Public sentiment among the youth in China reveals growing disillusionment and skepticism about future opportunities and government actions.
Deep dives
China's Economic Growth and Challenges
China's once rapid economic growth has slowed significantly, leading to concerns about its future. Key sectors such as real estate and technology face serious challenges, contributing to a decline in foreign direct investment. Youth unemployment is particularly concerning, with official statistics indicating rates as high as 19% among those under 24. This raises questions about whether these challenges signify a broader decline in the progress China has made over the last half-century or if they are merely a result of external perceptions.
Geopolitical Influence and Global Reach
Despite economic challenges, China continues to maintain and even expand its geopolitical influence, especially in developing regions. The nation remains the world's largest bilateral creditor, providing significant investment and infrastructure development in countries across Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. This trend indicates a strategic push by China to position itself as a leader in global development, particularly with initiatives that align with the interests of emerging markets. As other countries' dependencies on China grow, it aims to establish itself as a key player on the global stage.
Shifts in Public Sentiment and Youth Engagement
Public sentiment in China, particularly among the youth, shows signs of disillusionment and disengagement, contrasting with earlier generations' optimism. Many young people today express frustration about job prospects and the government's handling of social issues, contributing to a sense of apathy. While previous generations believed in the continual improvement of their circumstances, today's youth are increasingly skeptical about the future. This shift underscores a societal change that could have long-term implications for political stability and social cohesion.
Crisis of Corruption and Governance
Corruption remains a persistent issue for the Chinese government, even amid Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaigns. While the party has made efforts to portray a crackdown on graft, reports indicate that local officials still engage in corrupt practices, albeit in different forms. However, there are arguments that the government's approach has reduced some overt corruption, leading to increased regulatory measures and oversight. The ongoing tension between maintaining power and addressing corruption reflects challenges the Communist Party must navigate to retain public trust.
Environmental Initiatives versus Traditional Practices
China's approach to environmental policy presents a paradox: while it leads in renewable energy production, it simultaneously continues to invest heavily in coal. This contradictory behavior raises concerns about the effectiveness of China's environmental initiatives, as the energy transition remains incomplete. Nonetheless, there are substantial investments in green technology, positioning China as a crucial player in combating climate change. Ultimately, this reflects a tension between traditional industrial practices and the urgent need for sustainable development.
Cultural Authority and Soft Power Challenges
China's ability to project soft power and cultural authority on the global stage remains limited despite some successes in cultural exchange. The government's tight control over media and freedom of expression stifles creativity and may hinder the country's global cultural influence. Additionally, public perception within China reveals a disconnect, as many citizens are influenced by foreign culture while simultaneously being subjected to state propaganda. This dichotomy highlights the challenge China faces in establishing a narrative that resonates both domestically and abroad.
** This episode of Chinese Whispers with Cindy Yu was recorded in front of a live audience as a part of the Battle of Ideas Festival 2024. **
Is China in decline?
I was born in China in the 90s, and growing up it felt like the future was always going to be brighter. My parents were wealthier, more educated, better travelled than their parents, and it seemed assured that my generation would only have even better life chances.
But in the 2020s, China’s economic growth has slowed down. Some of the once-bright spots in its economy, like real estate, are in slow motion meltdown. In the last couple of years foreign direct investment into the country has been falling at a record pace. The youth unemployment rate from this summer shows that just under a fifth of people under 24 are jobless.
So how much of this is a considerable decline in the progress that China has made in the last miraculous half century, or is it just perhaps 'western bias' that’s blinding us to what is still a very positive picture?
On this live podcast, I discuss this question with a lively and experienced panel of China-watchers: Tom Miller, a senior analyst at Gavekal Research and author of two books on China; Isabel Hilton, a veteran international reporter and founder of the website China Dialogue; and Austin Williams, an architect by training who is also the author of numerous books on China, and teaches at the Xi'An Jiaotong-Liverpool University.
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