Summer Outlook: What to Make of Extreme Weather Predictions
Jun 11, 2024
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Explore the escalating risks of extreme weather events due to climate change, including heatwaves, droughts, and hurricanes. Learn about the impacts of rising global temperatures and the shift from El Nino to La Nina conditions. Discover the interconnected vulnerabilities of society to climate change and the importance of adaptation measures. Dive into the concept of compound extreme events and the implications of accelerated global warming on critical systems. Delve into the urgency for increased investments in adaptation to safeguard against extreme weather, and see how students are driving climate solutions and social responsibility.
Rising temperatures and variability challenge climate predictions, exacerbated by El Niño dynamics and wet bulb temperature risks.
Deep dives
Reassessing Climate Risks
Climate scientists are reevaluating worst-case scenarios of climate change, noting the increasing probability of extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, thunderstorms, and hurricanes. Instances like the 2024 hurricane season's predicted high storm frequency highlight the escalating risks. Climate change is intensifying these events, as seen in rising temperatures globally. Adaptation efforts are crucial to address this evolving reality.
Temperature Surprises and El Niño
Temperature records in 2023 and early 2024 revealed unexpected warmth levels, even under current greenhouse gas concentrations. Factors like El Niño's warming influence were considered, but alone couldn't explain the extreme temperatures. El Niño dynamics, affecting ocean-atmosphere interactions, lead to global temperature spikes, challenging predictions and climate attribution.
Understanding Wet Bulb Temperature
The wet bulb temperature concept illustrates the impact of humidity on body cooling mechanisms. In high humidity, evaporative cooling is less effective, posing health risks due to reduced sweating efficacy. Wet bulb temperatures exceeding 95°F are extremely hazardous, indicating severe heat stress and potential health complications.
Compound Extreme Events and Adaptation Challenges
Rising compound extreme events pose complex challenges, intertwining weather variables to magnify risks. Systems in cities and coastal regions struggle to adapt adequately, facing resistance despite efforts to safeguard vulnerable populations. Climate change exacerbates adaptation hurdles, requiring comprehensive strategies to address evolving threats across various scales.
In the next few months, heat waves, droughts, thunderstorms, and hurricanes will wreak havoc on regions around the world. Climate scientists say these events are becoming more extreme and dangerous thanks in part to the changing climate.
For example, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for the 2024 hurricane season, which just started June 1, anticipates an exceptionally high number of storms this year.
So, why are extreme weather events worsening? How is climate change contributing to this development? And what measures are being taken to adapt to this new reality?
This week host Bill Loveless talks with Radley Horton about the outlook for extreme weather events across the globe this summer, and why the intensity and severity of them is expected to increase.
Radley is a professor at the Columbia Climate School, where he teaches and researches climate extremes, risks, impacts, and adaptation. He was a convening lead author for the United States’ Third National Climate Assessment, and he is currently a principal investigator for NOAA, focusing on climate risk in the urban U.S. Northeast.
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