Lawfare Daily: Inside Ukraine’s Drone Campaign Against Russia
Aug 1, 2024
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In this enlightening discussion, Anastasiia Lapatina, a Kyiv-based Ukraine Fellow, and Marcel Plichta, a former U.S. Department of Defense analyst, delve into Ukraine’s innovative drone campaign against Russia. They explore how advanced drone technology is reshaping warfare dynamics, including successful strikes on critical oil infrastructure. The duo highlights the psychological effects of these drone missions, their influence on global oil prices, and the contrasting manufacturing tactics between Ukraine’s decentralized production and Russia’s centralized approach.
Ukraine's drone campaign focuses on high-value economic targets within Russia, showcasing a strategic shift towards causing significant collateral damage and psychological impact.
The evolution of drone warfare in Ukraine is influencing global military dynamics, encouraging other nations and non-state actors to adopt similar technologies for modern combat.
Deep dives
The Emergence of Drone Warfare in Ukraine
Drones have become a critical aspect of the conflict in Ukraine, significantly impacting both Ukrainian and Russian military strategies. Ukraine has established a specialized unmanned systems force to enhance its drone capabilities, reflecting the technological advancements made in drone warfare. Early proposals for a one-way drone attack strategy aimed to address the need for long-range strikes after initial phases of the conflict had settled into more static engagements. The identification of drones as a viable option was influenced by Ukraine's existing drone industry and engineering expertise, which allowed for the rapid adaptation of commercial drone technology for military purposes.
Strategic Targets of Ukrainian Drone Campaign
The Ukrainian drone campaign primarily targets oil refineries and industrial complexes deep within Russian territory, rather than focusing solely on military installations. This strategy is guided by the understanding that oil facilities represent large, costly targets that are less fortified than military sites, making them vulnerable to drone attacks. By targeting these installations, Ukraine aims to create significant economic damage and a psychological impact on the Russian military, suggesting that even areas once deemed secure are now at risk. This approach also takes advantage of the various capabilities that drones offer, allowing Ukraine to utilize them for strikes that would be difficult to achieve with conventional weaponry.
Challenges and International Reactions to Drone Strategies
Initially, there were concerns from international observers regarding the escalation that could arise from Ukraine's use of drones for attacks in Russia. However, as the conflict progressed and particularly after Russia began utilizing similar strategies, the rationale for Ukrainian drone strikes became more accepted. The focus on accuracy and minimizing civilian casualties has helped alleviate some apprehension, demonstrating that these operations can limit collateral damage. Continuous drone incursions have forced Russia to reevaluate its air defense strategies, reallocating resources away from front-line engagements to protect vulnerable high-value assets.
The Future of Drone Warfare and Its Global Implications
The growing reliance on drones in Ukraine is influencing warfare dynamics beyond its borders, prompting other nations and non-state actors to adopt similar technologies. Countries such as Iran are leveraging Ukraine's advancements to proliferate drone technology, facilitating its adoption in various regional conflicts. The ability of smaller factions to effectively utilize drones without extensive military infrastructure marks a significant shift in modern warfare tactics. As drone usage becomes more widespread and technologically advanced, it is plausible that future conflicts will increasingly emphasize drone capabilities, reshaping the landscape of military engagements globally.
Anastasiia Lapatina is a Kyiv-based Ukraine Fellow at Lawfare. Marcel Plichta is a Fellow at the Centre for Global Law and Governance at the University of St. Andrews, and a former analyst at the U.S. Department of Defense who currently works as an instructor at the Grey Dynamics Intelligence School.
For this episode, Lapatina sat down with Plichta to discuss Ukraine’s ongoing drone campaign against Russia, Ukraine’s choice of targets deep inside Russian territory, and the future of drone warfare around the world.