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Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show
David Puell & Checkmate | Data-Driven Bitcoin Analysis | EP 130
Oct 26, 2023
01:06:12
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Quick takeaways
- The CoinTime Economics framework incorporates coin time as a uniform measure of time in the Bitcoin world, providing accurate analysis of investor behavior and trends on-chain.
- The concept of coin time and the Coin Time True Market Mean Price reveal the holding behavior of short-term holders and indicate their strong grasp and conviction, supporting upward price movement.
Deep dives
On-Chain Analysis: Understanding Bitcoin's Economics
On-chain analysis allows us to see the economic behavior on the Bitcoin blockchain in real-time. It provides insights into investor behavior and the transparency of the Bitcoin ecosystem. The new framework called CoinTime Economics, developed by James Check and David Puel, incorporates the concept of coin time, which replaces clock time as a uniform measure of time in the Bitcoin world. It smooths out the variations in block intervals and allows for accurate analysis. On-chain metrics such as coin days destroyed and liveliness can reveal trends and patterns in investor behavior, including hodling, profit-taking, and potential market tops. Currently, the market shows high vaultedness, indicating that a significant portion of the supply is held by long-term holders, while short-term holders exhibit strong conviction and resist panic-selling. The sell-side risk ratio suggests the potential for future volatility as price needs to move to incentivize new market activity. Additionally, the surge in call option open interest indicates growing interest from firms and funds who may be using options to gain exposure to Bitcoin. Overall, the tightness of supply and the behavior of investors suggest positive prospects for Bitcoin if demand increases.
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