Making Sense Trading Insights: What to watch in equity markets heading into year-end
8 snips
Dec 2, 2025 Andrew Tyler, Global Head of Market Intelligence at J.P. Morgan, and Federico Manicardi, International Head of Market Intelligence, dive into the dynamics of the market as 2025 wraps up. They unpack why global equities have surged, crediting robust macro and earnings growth. The duo spotlights emerging markets' rally, attributing it to dollar weakness and strong earnings. They also detail a strategic investment approach, suggesting a mix of mega-cap tech and cyclicals, while warning of potential risks from geopolitical tensions and shifts in AI valuations.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Macro Drivers Behind US Equity Strength
- US equity strength in 2025 was driven by a healthy consumer, robust corporate sector, and falling effective tariff rates.
- These combined supported above-trend US GDP growth and equity performance into the year.
Two Tailwinds Lifted Emerging Markets
- Emerging markets outperformance was driven by a weaker US dollar early in the year and improving EM earnings later on.
- Dollar moves were a headwind in H2 but earnings growth turned positive and supported EM returns.
Fed Repricing And AI Fears Caused The Pullback
- The October–November S&P pullback reflected repricing of Fed cut odds and anxiety around AI valuations.
- Markets cut December cut odds from ~99% to ~35% before recovering above ~85%, amplifying volatility.