We Bombed Iran But We're Still in Trouble /Lt Col Daniel Davis

The U.S. and Israel have recently bombed Iran, targeting nuclear sites, and a ceasefire is now in place. However, there is growing concern that neither side—especially the U.S.—had a clear post-strike objective or strategy. The speaker criticizes the apparent lack of planning or foresight from U.S. leadership, particularly President Trump and his military advisors, suggesting that the strikes were carried out with a "hit now, think later" approach.

Key points:

No Clear Strategy: Military force was used without a well-defined end goal. The speaker emphasizes the importance of asking "and then what?" before initiating conflict, a question that seems to have been ignored.

Unclear Objectives: When asked about the goal, Trump gave vague responses, suggesting uncertainty even after the bombing had occurred. This indicates a lack of planning regarding Iran’s uranium stockpiles, enrichment capabilities, or IAEA inspections.

Destroyed but Unverified: Though Trump claims Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been “obliterated,” experts and inspectors suggest damage is uncertain. Underground facilities, particularly at Fordow, may still be intact—no one really knows without physical inspection.

JCPOA Withdrawal Criticism: The speaker argues that the nuclear deal (JCPOA) was already effectively limiting Iran’s nuclear capability, and pulling out of it in 2018 was a strategic error. Now the U.S. is trying to enforce outcomes that were already achieved under that deal.

False Premise: Iran didn’t have an active nuclear weapons program, according to both U.S. and international intelligence. The attacks, then, were based more on political narrative than verified threat.

Strategic Confusion: Trump claims the strikes have set Iran’s program back by years, but IAEA officials suggest it could recover in months. The true impact remains unclear, as there’s no verified damage assessment yet.

Conclusion:

The central critique is that the military strikes lacked strategic clarity and may have been counterproductive, especially since the diplomatic tools that once constrained Iran’s nuclear ambitions were abandoned by the same leadership now attempting to bomb their way back to control.Transcript

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