Animal Spirits Podcast The most obvious recession ever (EP.258)
May 25, 2022
The hosts dive into the housing market's current woes, discussing inventory surplus and private market slowdowns. They highlight the challenges of a bear market, contrasting value and growth investments in light of rising borrowing costs. Investor behavior is scrutinized amid high inflation impacting consumer sentiment. The shifting landscape of venture capital is explored, revealing a drop in private investments. They also touch on the revival of travel and services, alongside nostalgic movie recommendations, adding a fun twist to the economic discourse.
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Bearish Sentiment
- Global growth optimism is at a record low, and cash levels are the highest since 9/11.
- Investors are bearish and anticipating a recession, possibly due to obvious signs like inventory buildup and warnings from advertisers.
Market Corrections
- Many anticipated market events, like the decline of speculative assets and rising interest rates, have occurred.
- This suggests a potential market bottom, but the future remains uncertain.
Bond Flows
- Bond mutual funds experienced the worst outflows since March 2020, with $23 billion withdrawn.
- Conversely, bond ETFs saw a significant inflow of $32 billion in the past month.