Why voters went back to Trump, with Molly Ball and Nicole Hemmer
Nov 9, 2024
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Molly Ball, a senior political correspondent at the Wall Street Journal, and Nicole Hemmer, a historian specializing in modern conservatism, delve into the implications of Donald Trump's remarkable electoral comeback. They discuss how voter frustrations with inflation and immigration have fueled his support, posing concerns about democracy's health. Hemmer warns of unchecked power, while Ball debates whether traditional barriers to executive authority will hold. The duo also examines the Democratic Party's struggle to reconnect with working-class voters and navigate its ideological divides.
Trump's victory illustrates significant voter frustration regarding inflation and immigration, paving the way for a resurgence of populism in American politics.
Concerns about the erosion of democratic norms underscore the challenge of maintaining checks and balances amidst Trump's concentration of power.
Deep dives
Trump's Historic Victory
Donald Trump's election marks a significant moment in American political history, as he becomes the first president to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland. His decisive victory can be attributed to substantial demographic shifts among minority groups, which played a critical role in swinging key states like Pennsylvania in his favor. Notably, Trump's support surged in areas like Philadelphia, showcasing a notable five-point increase compared to the previous election. He is now set to govern with a favorable majority in Congress, including both the Senate and potentially the House, underscoring the strong mandate from voters who prioritized his promises concerning inflation and immigration.
Polling Trends and Miscalculations
Despite widespread predictions of a neck-and-neck race, Trump’s eventual victory, sealed with a narrow popular vote lead, reflected a systematic underestimation of his support by pollsters. Polling officials, while generally predicting a close election, failed to accurately capture the pro-Trump sentiment, similar to flaws seen in previous election cycles. This consistent miscalculation has heightened calls for polling methodology reforms to better account for the demographic realities and underlying sentiments of the voting population. The challenge remains for pollsters to enhance their understanding of the electorate and effectively integrate the voices of those supporting Trump.
Implications of Trump's Policies
Trump's agenda is expected to focus heavily on issues that resonated with voters, particularly economic concerns like inflation and strict immigration policies. His ability to bypass Congress to enact certain measures—such as tariffs and executive orders—raises questions about the potential fallout of these decisions on the economy and society at large. Observers predict tumultuous outcomes, especially with proposed mass deportations and tariffs likely to exacerbate inflation. This sets the stage for a governance style that may prioritize populist rhetoric over traditional fiscal policies, creating uncertainty in economic forecasts.
Erosion of Democratic Norms
The conversation surrounding Trump's potential second term highlights broader concerns about the erosion of democratic norms and the rule of law in the United States. Many fear that Trump's administration could further challenge established checks and balances, particularly given his previous actions that raised alarms about the integrity of the electoral process. The shift toward a more anti-establishment mindset among voters, compounded by Trump's rhetoric, indicates a longing for radical change that could destabilize traditional political structures. As Trump assumes office again, the question remains whether democratically-rooted accountability mechanisms will be sufficient to restrict the reach of his administration.
On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer dives into the far-reaching consequences of Donald Trump’s return to office as he becomes the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve non-consecutive terms. With strong wins across key swing states like Pennsylvania, Trump’s decisive victory reflects widespread voter frustration over issues like inflation and immigration and signals a major shift toward populism and anti-establishment sentiment. Historian Nicole Hemmer notes, “We’re witnessing the acceleration of democratic erosion, where checks and balances may no longer hold,” pointing to the dangers of unchecked power as Trump’s administration begins to take shape.
Joined by Vanderbilt historian Hemmer and Wall Street Journal reporter Molly Ball, Bremmer explores how Trump’s policies and approach could reshape American governance, especially with the GOP in control of the Executive, Senate, and likely the House. Ball highlights the risks involved, saying, “The real test will be whether the barriers that once existed to curb executive power still stand—or if they’re eroded by design.” They also reflect on the Democratic Party’s internal challenges, including how it must find ways to reconnect with working-class voters and navigate its ideological divide between progressive and centrist visions.