NAB Morning Call No news, good news
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Mar 17, 2025 Taylor Nugent, an economist at NAB, shares valuable insights on US retail sales and the economic landscape. He discusses February's retail sales, revealing that beneath the surface, consumer spending fears may be overstated. The conversation also covers the volatile Empire State Manufacturing Index and the cautious optimism stemming from housing market indicators. Nugent touches on Australia's stable growth and China's strategies to boost consumer spending, while also hinting at the geopolitical implications of potential talks between Trump and Putin regarding Ukraine.
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Retail Sales Insight
- US retail sales were weaker than expected in February, only rising 0.2% vs. the anticipated 0.7%.
- However, the core measure, excluding auto sales, was stronger, suggesting the US consumer isn't completely hitting a wall.
Economic Indicators
- Despite some positive signs in core retail sales, other indicators point to a downturn.
- The NAHB housing market index softened, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index saw a significant drop, suggesting potential economic weakness.
OECD Growth Forecast
- The OECD lowered global growth forecasts for 2025 from 3.3% to 3.1% due to tariff impacts.
- The downgrades were primarily concentrated in countries like Mexico and Canada, with the US still projected to grow at 2.2%.