Know More. Risk Better. Strategy Global Market Update: 2026 Outlook
Nov 24, 2025
Zach Griffiths is U.S. Head of Macro and Investment Grade Strategy at CreditSights, bringing insights on U.S. GDP slowdown and Fed rate cuts. Logan Miller, Head of Euro Strategy, discusses the ECB's cautious stance and the impact of Germany's fiscal stimulus. Regis Châtelier, specializing in emerging markets, highlights strong fundamentals and growth potential in EM. The panel delves into credit market risks, the influence of AI on issuance, and concludes with actionable scenarios for investors looking to navigate the shifting landscape into 2026.
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U.S. Growth And Rates Reset
- Zach Griffiths expects U.S. GDP to slow to 1–1.5% in 2026 driven by a weakening labor market and consumer fragility.
- He forecasts the Fed cutting to a 3% upper bound and 10-year Treasuries around 3.5% with curve steepening.
Forward Guidance Matters More Than One Cut
- The Fed is expected to cut in December with forward guidance driving market moves more than the single policy action.
- Markets may price a terminal rate nearer 2.5% and a 2s-10s steepening to ~100bps.
ECB In Neutral; Germany Fiscal Watch
- Logan Miller sees the ECB as finished cutting and likely in wait-and-see mode after proactive easing earlier.
- He highlights German fiscal spending as a key growth and yield driver for Europe in 2026.