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The concept of elite bargains in kickstarting growth and development in nations stands out as a crucial element. Unlike the focus on sustaining long-run growth in some frameworks, this approach centers on initiating and catalyzing growth. Elite bargains involve clustering elites oriented toward growth in strategic positions or spaces, like special economic zones, to demonstrate success and influence broader national reforms. This dynamic approach recognizes the agency of political actors to drive change within historical constraints, emphasizing the importance of empowering current elites to shape development trajectories within imperfect institutional contexts.
In the context of political settlements theory, the development bargain framework showcases overlaps and distinctions, notably in the treatment of institutions and historical legacies. While both approaches acknowledge the central role of elite interactions, the development bargain framework emphasizes the agency within elites to instigate transformative growth, contrasting with the settled nature of political settlements. The dynamism of multiple equilibria and the interplay of historical and current actions define a nuanced approach that prioritizes agency in shaping development trajectories.
When juxtaposed with the concept of inclusive institutions presented in economic works like 'Why Nations Fail,' the development bargain framework introduces a unique perspective. Rather than solely attributing outcomes to institutional arrangements shaped by historical trajectories, the framework highlights the agency within elite bargains to drive growth even in imperfect institutional contexts. By emphasizing the importance of current actors and agency, it offers a dynamic lens to spark transformative development, distinct from deterministic historical institutional perspectives.
A core tenet of the development bargain framework hinges on the influence of individual agency and prevailing norms in shaping growth trajectories. Contrasting with rigid institutional focus, this viewpoint underscores the vitality of people animating laws and institutions to breathe life into development efforts. By recognizing the significance of norms, values, and collective action amongst contemporary actors, the framework reiterates the role of elite dynamics and societal norms in propelling impactful growth outcomes.
One key factor contributing to the emergence of a development bargain is the window of opportunity created when a country emerges from conflict or extreme events like the wars in Britain or the cultural revolution in China. Another factor is the quest for elites to gain legitimacy, often stemming from conflict or extreme events. Additionally, the foresight that a more lucrative elite bargain is possible for elites focusing on growth, akin to profit-sharing and franchising as seen in China, plays a crucial role.
While technocracy plays a vital role in governance, there is a scalability issue in low-income countries due to a limited number of highly trained technocrats available during economic growth take-off. The challenge lies in the ability to train more technocrats to handle increasing complexities, bottlenecks, and problem-solving for emerging foreign firms as growth progresses.
Navigating the complexities of technocratic governance involves balancing ideology and quality advice, as observed in a political shift towards ideology over evidence-based decision-making. The experience of cutting budgets without sufficient evidence-based information highlights the challenges faced in making impactful decisions that affect various sectors and populations, emphasizing the need for a balance between technocratic expertise and political considerations.
Stefan Dercon is the author of Gambling on Development, in which he details his theory of the elite bargain framework for development in low-income countries. Stefan is a Professor of Economic Policy at the University of Oxford, and also serves as the Director of the Center for the Study of African Economies. Prior to his current academic posts, he has extensive experience in the world of policy, as the Chief Economist at the Department for International Development and as an advisor to the UK’s Foreign Secretary. In our conversation with Stefan in today's show, we get to delve deep into his elite bargain idea, the impact of effective altruism, the need for self-awareness within governments, and how far lessons from certain examples can be applied to other states. We also get to talk about political settlements and how his framework fits into the context of current popular theories and explanations for economic growth. So to catch all this and a whole lot more, be sure to listen in to this great chat with Stefan Dercon!
Key Points From This Episode:
• Stefan's perspective on the different skills needed for policy implementation and idea generation.
• The challenges of communicating the need for policy experimentation to politicians.
• Some key ingredients to effective government meetings and common mistakes that Stefan has seen.
• Examples from Stefan of the kind of practical implementations he has seen used well in governance.
• Stefan shares some examples that underline his book's main thesis about successful development.
• An approach to determining a country's emerging development bargain.
• Our guest unpacks the three conditions for development bargains noted in his book.
• Why a certain model for development cannot be expected to have the same success in a different context.
• The impact that studying Asia later in his career has had on Stefan's frameworks and philosophy.
• Stefan talks about his findings on possible lessons from urbanization in China.
• Issues that Stefan has with the idea and terminology of political settlements.
• Contrasting Stefan's argument with the thesis of Why Nations Fail.
• Suggestions on how to motivate elites to engage and gamble on development.
• Stefan's personal perspective on economic growth and its role in poverty alleviation.
• Why meaningful progress is dependent on a certain amount of risk.
• How Stefan would suggest spending money on growth interventions and lessons from Africa in the 1990s.
• What the situation in Sri Lanka right now teaches us about investment in people.
• The danger of consolidating authoritarianism in countries such as China and Rwanda.
• How the mobility of a burgeoning middle class can impact the development of a state.
• Stefan weighs in on the potential scalability problem in a technocracy.
• Some of Stefan's reflections on his time at DFID and its challenges.
• Looking to the horizon with Stefan and his forthcoming projects.
Links Mentioned in Today’s Episode:
Department for International Development
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode