Can Germany’s next chancellor help Europe deal with Trump?
Feb 28, 2025
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In this engaging discussion, James Angelos, POLITICO's news editor in Berlin, Jana Puglierin, Senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, and Nick Vinocur, POLITICO's editor-at-large, analyze the implications of Friedrich Merz's election as Germany's chancellor-in-waiting. They explore the challenges of coalition-building amid a rise in extremist parties, the shifting dynamics of transatlantic relations, and Europe's urgent need for leadership in response to geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine and energy independence.
Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz must navigate complex coalition dynamics and rising far-right influence to address Germany's political polarization.
Merz's shift towards more restrictive immigration policies reflects broader trends in Europe, highlighting tensions within the coalition with the Social Democrats.
Deep dives
Impact of German Election Results
The German election results indicate significant challenges for newly elected Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as his center-right CDU party must form a coalition with the Social Democrats despite having received their worst historical result. Merz's victory is not seen as a strong endorsement, with about one-third of voters supporting parties that oppose military support for Ukraine and advocate anti-NATO sentiments. This suggests an increasing polarization in German politics, with a need for his coalition to navigate a divided electorate and address the growing influence of the far-right Alternative for Germany party. The challenges he faces could impact not only domestic policies but also the future of Germany’s role within the European Union.
Coalition Dynamics and Immigration Policy
The discussions surrounding coalition negotiations reveal a significant shift in immigration policy perspectives between the CDU and the Social Democrats. Both parties have adopted more restrictive views on immigration, reflecting a broader European trend of mainstream parties responding to the rising far-right. Merz's proposal to close the border to asylum seekers from other EU countries represents a shift in German politics that acknowledges public concerns over immigration. However, the SPD is likely to push back against some of the more extreme measures proposed, indicating recurring tension within the new coalition.
Challenges Ahead for Defense Spending
Germany's fiscal policies face scrutiny amid calls for increased defense spending in light of geopolitical tensions, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The country's debt break, which limits borrowing, poses a significant challenge to Merz's ambitions to expand military funding. Although discussions are underway to possibly loosen these restrictions, achieving a two-thirds majority in the parliament for such changes is complicated by the presence of leftist parties that could block reforms. Without necessary adjustments to fiscal policy, Germany might struggle to fulfill its commitments to bolster its defense capabilities amid growing security demands.
The Future of Franco-German Relations
With Merz's election, there is renewed speculation about the future of Franco-German relations and the dynamics within the European Union. Merz is viewed as someone who could revive Germany’s leadership role in Europe, seeking to collaborate not only with France but also with other EU members like Poland. However, tensions may arise between him and Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President, as their differing priorities could complicate efforts to align EU policies. This evolving relationship and the balance of power within the EU could influence how effectively Europe responds to emerging geopolitical challenges.
Germany has voted, and Friedrich Merz is now the chancellor-in-waiting. But can he rise to the occasion? With Donald Trump signaling a retreat from Europe and cozying up to Vladimir Putin, the continent faces its biggest security challenge in decades. Will Merz shake off Germany’s long-standing hesitation and step up?
Host Sarah Wheaton is joined by James Angelos, POLITICO’s news editor in Berlin; Jana Puglierin, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; and Nick Vinocur, POLITICO’s editor-at-large, to break down what the election results mean for Berlin, Brussels and beyond.
We explore Merz’s complicated relationship with Ursula von der Leyen, his challenge in forming a coalition, and whether his hardline stance on migration will help or hurt him as he faces the surging far-right AfD, which came second in the election — a historic result that cements them as Germany’s biggest opposition party.
Plus, we take you to Antwerp, where the European Commission unveiled its Clean Industrial Deal — a plan to keep Europe’s industries green and competitive. Sarah traveled there to speak with Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero and Clean Growth, and caught up with Belgium’s new Prime Minister Bart De Wever ahead of the upcoming emergency EU summit.
