UBS On-Air: Market Moves Talking Markets Podcast with Patricia Zobel of Guggenheim Partners
Jul 31, 2025
Patricia Zobel, Head of Macroeconomic Research and Market Strategy at Guggenheim Partners and former executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shares her insights on the US economy. She delves into the implications of current US trade policies, especially regarding tariffs with China and the EU. The discussion covers the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, the significance of its independence, and forecasts for growth and unemployment. Zobel also highlights investment opportunities in sectors like infrastructure and energy amidst ongoing market uncertainties.
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Evolving U.S. Trade Tariff Landscape
- U.S. trade policy is evolving with increased base tariffs and greater focus on reducing evasion.
- Tariffs remain elevated and will impact inflation through 2025 with wide uncertainty.
Modest Growth From Fiscal Bill
- The 'one big beautiful bill' will provide modest growth stimulus in 2026 but the effect fades afterward.
- Fiscal sustainability concerns and rising deficits cast a longer-term shadow on growth prospects.
U.S. Economy Avoids Recession So Far
- The U.S. economy is slowing but avoids recession due to strong labor and household fundamentals.
- We expect growth under 1% this year and gradual unemployment increase, not recession.