Cixin Liu's 'The Three-Body Problem' is a critically acclaimed science fiction novel that blends hard science with compelling storytelling. The story follows a group of scientists who make contact with an alien civilization, leading to unforeseen consequences for humanity. Liu's intricate world-building and exploration of complex scientific and philosophical themes have earned him widespread recognition. The novel is known for its ambitious scope and its exploration of the potential challenges and dangers of encountering extraterrestrial life. It's a thought-provoking work that has captivated readers worldwide.
In this novel, Mark Twain tells the story of Hank Morgan, a mechanic from Connecticut who, after a severe blow to the head, finds himself transported to the court of King Arthur in the sixth century. Using his modern knowledge and practical skills, Hank navigates the complexities of medieval life, challenges the customs of the time, and attempts to introduce democratic principles and technological innovations. The novel is a humorous yet critical exploration of the contrasts between modern and medieval societal norms, highlighting themes such as time travel, satire, and the clash of cultures[3][4][5].
Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis provide a lucid assessment of the current science in AI, explaining what today’s AI can and cannot do. They argue that current AI systems, based on deep learning, are narrow and brittle, and that achieving true artificial general intelligence requires moving beyond statistical analysis and large data sets. The authors suggest that by incorporating knowledge-driven approaches and common sense, we can build AI systems that are reliable and trustworthy in various aspects of our lives, such as homes, cars, and medical offices.
In 'The Birth of the Mind', Gary Marcus addresses the nature vs. nurture debate by linking the Human Genome Project findings to brain development. He explains how genes provide instructions for building complex biological systems, not as blueprints but as recipes that interact with environmental factors. The book offers insights into genetic engineering and the interplay between genes and environment in shaping human thought.
Gary Marcus's "Kluge" explores the human mind's design as a collection of workarounds and hacks rather than a perfectly engineered system. He argues that our cognitive abilities are a patchwork of evolved mechanisms, often inefficient and prone to errors. The book uses examples from various fields, including psychology, neuroscience, and computer science, to illustrate the kludgy nature of human thought. Marcus emphasizes the importance of understanding these limitations to improve our decision-making and problem-solving skills. He suggests that by acknowledging the imperfections of our cognitive architecture, we can develop strategies to mitigate biases and make more rational choices.
Prof. Gary Marcus is a scientist, bestselling author and entrepreneur, well known as one of the most influential voices in AI. He is Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neuroscience at NYU. He was founder and CEO of Geometric Intelligence, a machine learning company acquired by Uber in 2016.
Gary co-authored the 2019 book, Rebooting AI: Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust, and the 2024 book, Taming Silicon Valley: How We Can Ensure That AI Works for Us. He played an important role in the 2023 Senate Judiciary Subcommittee Hearing on Oversight of AI, testifying with Sam Altman.
In this episode, Gary and I have a lively debate about whether P(doom) is approximately 50%, or if it’s less than 1%!
00:00 Introducing Gary Marcus
02:33 Gary’s AI Skepticism
09:08 The Human Brain is a Kluge
23:16 The 2023 Senate Judiciary Subcommittee Hearing
28:46 What’s Your P(Doom)™
44:27 AI Timelines
51:03 Is Superintelligence Real?
01:00:35 Humanity’s Immune System
01:12:46 Potential for Recursive Self-Improvement
01:26:12 AI Catastrophe Scenarios
01:34:09 Defining AI Agency
01:37:43 Gary’s AI Predictions
01:44:13 The NYTimes Obituary Test
01:51:11 Recap and Final Thoughts
01:53:35 Liron’s Outro
01:55:34 Eliezer Yudkowsky’s New Book!
01:59:49 AI Doom Concept of the Day
Show Notes
Gary’s Substack — https://garymarcus.substack.com
Gary’s Twitter — https://x.com/garymarcus
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com
Come to the Less Online conference on May 30 - Jun 1, 2025: https://less.online
Hope to see you there!
Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligence
PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info
Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at https://doomdebates.com and to https://youtube.com/@DoomDebates
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit
lironshapira.substack.com
Doom Debates 
