Prof. Gary Marcus is a scientist, bestselling author and entrepreneur, well known as one of the most influential voices in AI. He is Professor Emeritus of Psychology and Neuroscience at NYU. He was founder and CEO of Geometric Intelligence, a machine learning company acquired by Uber in 2016.
Gary co-authored the 2019 book, Rebooting AI: Building Artificial Intelligence We Can Trust, and the 2024 book, Taming Silicon Valley: How We Can Ensure That AI Works for Us. He played an important role in the 2023 Senate Judiciary Subcommittee Hearing on Oversight of AI, testifying with Sam Altman.
In this episode, Gary and I have a lively debate about whether P(doom) is approximately 50%, or if it’s less than 1%!
00:00 Introducing Gary Marcus
02:33 Gary’s AI Skepticism
09:08 The Human Brain is a Kluge
23:16 The 2023 Senate Judiciary Subcommittee Hearing
28:46 What’s Your P(Doom)™
44:27 AI Timelines
51:03 Is Superintelligence Real?
01:00:35 Humanity’s Immune System
01:12:46 Potential for Recursive Self-Improvement
01:26:12 AI Catastrophe Scenarios
01:34:09 Defining AI Agency
01:37:43 Gary’s AI Predictions
01:44:13 The NYTimes Obituary Test
01:51:11 Recap and Final Thoughts
01:53:35 Liron’s Outro
01:55:34 Eliezer Yudkowsky’s New Book!
01:59:49 AI Doom Concept of the Day
Show Notes
Gary’s Substack — https://garymarcus.substack.com
Gary’s Twitter — https://x.com/garymarcus
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com
Come to the Less Online conference on May 30 - Jun 1, 2025: https://less.online
Hope to see you there!
Watch the Lethal Intelligence Guide, the ultimate introduction to AI x-risk! https://www.youtube.com/@lethal-intelligence
PauseAI, the volunteer organization I’m part of: https://pauseai.info
Join the PauseAI Discord — https://discord.gg/2XXWXvErfA — and say hi to me in the #doom-debates-podcast channel!
Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.
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