What If… The French Revolution Had Happened in China?
Aug 11, 2024
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Ayse Zarakol, a world historian known for her insights on global power dynamics, joins the conversation. They explore the fascinating idea of the French Revolution occurring in China and how it could have reshaped global powers. Topics include the similarities between historical revolutions in the East and West, the reassessment of China’s historical strength, and the implications of leaders like Genghis Khan. Zarakol also raises intriguing questions about what a different Industrial Revolution in Asia might mean for world history.
The podcast explores how counterfactuals, like a French Revolution in China, could have changed the course of global historical development.
It emphasizes the significant role individual leaders play in shaping history, demonstrating that their decisions can alter the trajectories of empires.
The discussion also critiques the narrative of Western decline, highlighting the importance of diverse global perspectives on contemporary power dynamics.
Deep dives
The Great Divergence
The Great Divergence refers to the historical divergence in economic development and power between the West and the East from around 1700 onward. Initially, Western Europe and China were comparable in various aspects of development, including economic growth and scientific knowledge. However, a significant acceleration in the West led to imperial expansion and global dominance, while the East experienced stagnation. Historians have sought to understand the reasons for this divergence, often attributing it to structural features inherent in European society and intellectual culture.
Counterfactual History
Counterfactual history proposes alternative historical outcomes based on different conditions or events, questioning the idea that the divergence was a predetermined outcome. It suggests that the paths of history could have changed with slight alterations in key developments, such as the occurrence of the Industrial Revolution in Japan or the French Revolution in China. This perspective allows for a reevaluation of historical events and highlights the role of chance and contingency in shaping global history. By considering how different circumstances might lead to varying outcomes, a deeper understanding of historical processes can be gained.
Comparing Revolutions
The potential of a French Revolution-like event occurring in China is explored, particularly its implications for modernization and political change. While the French Revolution represented a move towards modern politics and democracy, the White Lotus Rebellion in China had characteristics of resistance against central authority but lacked the same transformative impact. Both instances reveal a desire for agency among the people, but they played out under differing conditions, with China's imperial structure presenting unique challenges. The discussion examines whether these events, had they succeeded, could have led to comparable political modernization in China.
The Role of Individual Figures
The significance of individual figures in history, such as Nadir Shah and Genghis Khan, exemplifies how specific leaders can alter the course of events and potentially redirect the trajectory of empires. Nadir Shah's decision to halt his expansion established a turning point that impacted the eventual rise of British power in India. By considering how the choices and actions of these central figures influenced broader historical developments, counterfactuals can illuminate alternative pathways that history might have taken. Such insights suggest that while larger structural factors are important, individual agency and decision-making are also crucial in shaping historical narratives.
Reassessing Western Decline
There is an ongoing discourse regarding the perceived decline of the West and the rise of non-Western powers, particularly China. While the narrative of Western decline has gained traction, it is essential to critically examine the accuracy of this view, especially in light of varying perspectives from around the world. In many regions outside the West, there is a perception that the current global order is not necessarily marked by crisis. This calls into question whether the prevailing Western narrative of decline fully accounts for the complexities of global dynamics.
For our second episode on big historical counterfactuals, David talks to world historian Ayse Zarakol about how the East might well have risen to global dominance before the West. What if the key revolutions of the modern world – political and industrial – had happened in Asia first? What if there had been an Iranian Napoleon? And how much of our understanding of modern history is based on the biases of hindsight?
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Next time: What if… Henry Wallace had become American President in 1945?
