Trump’s Mideast Diplomacy

16 snips

May 27, 2025

Guest

Karen Young

Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst and head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets; Joe McMonigle, founder of the Global Center for Energy Analysis; and Karen Young, expert on the Gulf's political economy, discuss Trump's recent Gulf visit. They delve into the transactional nature of his diplomacy, focusing on significant AI investments and how they may reshape U.S. relations with Middle Eastern countries. The trio also tackles potential oil price impacts, the complexities of OPEC dynamics, and the shifting landscape towards economic diversification in the region.

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ANECDOTE

Trump-Saudi Visit Tone Shift

Joe McMonigle described the shift in tone between Trump's first and second Saudi visits.
The Saudis initially tried to impress Trump, but later Trump took a more dominating stance in the region.

INSIGHT

Uncertain US Defense to Saudi

Karen Young highlighted skepticism about U.S. military defense guarantees to Saudi Arabia.
Despite Trump's assurances, actual military support if attacked remains uncertain.

INSIGHT

Saudi Gains Beyond Defense Guarantees

Helima Croft noted Saudi Arabia secured key deliverables like nuclear cooperation and AI chip exports.
The visit prioritized bilateral deals over explicit defense guarantees.

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President Trump's recent visit to the Gulf region marked a dramatic shift from the previous administration’s Middle East diplomacy. In his visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, Trump focused on securing significant investment commitments and commercial partnerships to support the region's AI and other ambitions.

The trip showcased Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy—one focused on bilateral deals rather than regional frameworks, and economic partnerships over military interventions. It also raised important questions about oil markets, geopolitical competition with China, nuclear agreements, and the future of energy prices.

So what are the likely impacts of massive investment pledges from Gulf nations? Do low oil prices limit the ability to make good on them? What is the outlook for oil prices with uncertainty over OPEC+ policy, a possible Iran deal, and possible new sanctions on Russia? And what does Trump's transactional diplomacy mean for traditional alliances and regional stability?

This week, Jason Bordoff speaks with Helima Croft, Joe McMonigle, and Karen Young about how the Trump administration is reshaping U.S. relations with Middle East countries and the long- and short-term implications it will have on energy markets and geopolitics.

Helima is managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, where she leads the coverage of energy markets and geopolitical risk. Joe is a distinguished visiting fellow here at the Center on Global Energy Policy and the founder and president of the Global Center for Energy Analysis, an independent research and analysis firm. Karen is a senior research scholar here at the Center on Global Energy Policy and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute where she focuses on the political economy of the Gulf States and energy policy.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O’Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive producer.