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The HC Commodities Podcast
The Super Charged Capex Cycle with Jeff Currie
Jul 16, 2024
Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer at The Carlyle Group and former Global Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, shares his insights on the commodities market's future. He explores whether the long-predicted commodity super cycle is a reality or a mirage, fueled by rising capital expenditures. Currie discusses the impacts of geopolitical tensions and dollar weaponization on energy and metals prices. He delves into the dynamics of energy transition, balancing traditional and renewable investments, and the importance of stable policies amidst global volatility.
47:29
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Quick takeaways
- The underinvestment in traditional commodities like energy and mining poses a significant risk of a looming supply crisis.
- Geopolitical tensions and evolving market dynamics are reshaping commodity demand, particularly favoring metals over hydrocarbons in investor sentiment.
Deep dives
The Current State of the Commodity Super Cycle
The belief in the commodity super cycle remains strong, despite recent challenges over the past 18 months. The primary argument for this positivity centers around inadequate capital investment in traditional commodities, particularly in energy and mining sectors. While there has been some influx of capital, it has not reached levels sufficient to expand the supply base as needed, resulting in a looming supply crisis. The structural issues from shifting investments to newer economies have disrupted traditional sectors, reinforcing the notion that supply dynamics are still frail.
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