Meb Faber, Founder and CEO, Cambria Investment Management
Nov 1, 2024
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Meb Faber, Founder and CEO of Cambria Investment Management, shares insights on navigating market highs and the benefits of trend-following strategies. He argues that investing at all-time highs can be advantageous, citing data that supports continued uptrends. Meb emphasizes the significance of shareholder yield, especially in foreign markets, and discusses innovative tax strategies that optimize investment returns. The conversation offers valuable takeaways for managing risks and enhancing portfolio performance in a dynamic economy.
Buying the market at all-time highs can be a strategic move, as data shows that upward momentum often continues after peaks.
Trend-following strategies are valuable for managing drawdowns and can enhance long-term performance by avoiding significant losses during downturns.
Focusing on shareholder yield, which combines dividends and buybacks, can improve investment outcomes, especially in foreign and emerging markets.
Deep dives
Buying at Market Highs
Purchasing assets at all-time highs is generally viewed with skepticism by investors, yet it can be a successful strategy. Data highlights that markets generally continue their upward momentum after reaching peak levels, suggesting that this approach may yield benefits. Meb Faber emphasizes the efficacy of a trend-following strategy, which helps manage substantial drawdowns that can jeopardize compounding returns. While the strategy can underperform during sideways markets, it successfully cuts off massive losses during downtrends, making it a valuable tool in an investor's strategy.
The Value of Shareholder Yield
Shareholder yield represents the combined effect of dividends and stock buybacks, with Meb Faber advocating for this approach due to its efficient performance in foreign and emerging markets. This strategy focuses on fundamentally strong companies that return capital to shareholders through buybacks rather than relying heavily on dividends. Many dividend-focused funds overlook share buybacks, which can be detrimental, particularly as companies increasingly favor this mechanism for returning capital. Meb argues that a greater emphasis on shareholder yield, as opposed to just dividends, can lead to better investment outcomes.
Understanding Market Volatility and Drawdowns
Trend-following strategies offer investors a way to mitigate significant drawdowns while maintaining exposure to potential upside. For example, using a simple technical indicator like the 200-day moving average can help identify whether to remain invested or shift to safer assets during downturns. This disciplined approach often results in lower volatility, which is crucial for long-term success. By avoiding the biggest loss periods, investors can effectively enhance their performance and navigate the emotional challenges posed by market fluctuations.
Rethinking Tax Efficiency in Investments
Recognizing the often-overlooked impact of taxes on investment returns can result in significant benefits for investors. Meb discusses a new approach using the tax-efficient strategy outlined in the 351 proposal, which allows a tax-deferred exchange of stocks when contributing to new funds. This method can enable investors to reallocate assets without immediate tax consequences, thus preserving capital and promoting better financial planning. While it may initially seem complex, this approach presents a valuable opportunity for high-net-worth investors seeking tax efficiency.
Concentration Risk in Market Indices
The concentration of assets in major indices like the S&P 500 poses potential risks that investors often overlook. Meb points out that as certain stocks rise in price, they gain larger weights in the index, potentially leading to unsustainable valuations. This concentration can disguise fundamental weaknesses and create volatility when those large constituents falter. Investors are encouraged to diversify beyond market-cap-weighted indices to achieve a more balanced exposure that mitigates such risks.
It was a pleasure to host a discussion with Meb Faber, the Founder and CEO of Cambria Asset Management. Our conversation begins with the question of whether it’s a good idea to buy the market at an all time high. To this, Meb argues it’s actually a great idea, pointing to the data and that markets in an uptrend continue to move higher.
We incorporate the notion of a trend following strategy, which Meb illustrates can be helpful in managing the inevitable and substantial drawdown which forces many investors out of the market and destroys the value of compounding in the process. No strategy is perfect, and trend following can underperform during sideways, choppy markets. But it has proven important to cut off the deep left tail with reasonable success. We also explore the work Meb has done on shareholder yield, a strategy that he’s passionate about and argues works particularly well in foreign and emerging markets.
Lastly, we talk about that a vastly under-appreciated aspect of return generation in investing: taxes. The team at Cambria is doing some interesting work on this front, utilizing a feature of the code that helps investors diversify risk in a tax efficient manner. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Meb Faber.
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