The Next Big Idea Daily

Life Is Unpredictable. Here's How to Thrive Anyway.

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Apr 25, 2025
David Spiegelhalter, an Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, dives into the art of managing uncertainty. He discusses how the chaotic nature of modern life, driven by fluctuating markets and advancements in AI, requires informed decision-making. Spiegelhalter explains the nuances of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through engaging metaphors. He stresses the importance of trustworthiness in statistical models, emphasizing humility in communication to build public trust amidst uncertainty.
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INSIGHT

Uncertainty Is a Relationship

  • Uncertainty is a relationship between ourselves and what we are uncertain about.
  • It depends on our knowledge, personal judgments, assumptions, and trust.
ADVICE

Quantify Uncertainty Clearly

  • Put your uncertainty into rough numbers rather than vague words.
  • Use fixed scales to translate terms like "likely" into probability ranges for clarity.
ANECDOTE

Historical Examples of Risk Assessment

  • At Bay of Pigs, CIA's 30% success chance was replaced with "a fair chance," misleading Kennedy to approve a failed raid.
  • Obama received varied expert probabilities on Bin Laden, illustrating expert uncertainty.
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