Upside Ep #60 — Germany's White Gold, The UK's Red Ink, and Reinventing VC

🎧 Upside Ep #60 — “White Gold, Red Ink, and Reinventing VC”

Hosts: Dan · Lomax · Andrew
Recorded: Oct 2, 2025

01:00 – Quick News Highlights

• 🇺🇸 US Shutdown — $15B GDP loss per week; political theatre more than fiscal risk.
• 🇬🇧 Labour Party Conference — Starmer’s 13% approval, OBR to cut productivity; £10B headroom could flip to £20B deficit.
• 💰 UK recovers $5B from Bitcoin fraud (FT)
• 🔐 UK demands Apple backdoor again (TechCrunch)
• 🤖 OpenAI $500B valuation (FT)
• 🌉 EF exits Europe, launches “Bridge” Bay Area program (Sifted)
• 🎬 Sora 2 video model - Sam A videos. Bwahaha 

10:00 – EF’s US Pivot

EF closes Paris/Berlin, focusing on US founder “sheep-dipping.”
 Validation of EU founder quality but reminder: growth capital + urgency still American advantages.

17:00 – Germany’s Lithium Discovery

• 43M tons found in northern Germany — ~$600B in-ground value.
• DLE extraction (from brines) cleaner but unproven.
• Europe could cover 50 years of demand, yet permitting, costs, and NIMBY issues loom.
• Real win may lie in refining and gigafactory build-out, not mining alone.

22:00 – London’s IPO Decline

• London slips to #23 globally; IPO volume down 69% ($248M → $42M).
• Causes: low equity appetite, no tech weighting, over-regulation, pension conservatism.
• Fixes: incentivise pension investment, cut stamp duty, attract tech listings.

27:00 – Should Governments Bail Out?

• UK guarantees £1.5B loan to JLR (post-cyberattack).
• Critics: moral hazard, no cyber-insurance, political pork-barrelling.
• Compare: Germany’s bold €500B public investment plan.
• Consensus: backstop only if government gets warrants + drives reform.

41:00 – Reinventing VC

• US mega-firms become RIAs, investing across public/private assets.
• New players: Evantic ($400M), Striker (10 LPs × 10 startups).
• AI models now beat humans at picking founders.
• Europe lags — still relationship-driven, early-stage remains “artisanal.”

51:00 – Deals of the Week

• 💥 Concept Ventures – £88M pre-seed fund (UK)
• 🧪 Periodic Labs – $300M seed (ex-DeepMind/OpenAI)
• 💼 Creator Fund – €80M pan-EU deep tech
• ⚖️ Legora – raising $100M @ $1.7B
• 🧠 Black Forest Labs – $4B valuation talks
• 🦄 Cleo, Tide hit unicorn status

57:00 – Defence & Tech

• Highlights from London Resilience Conference: surge in EU defence startups, faster US build cycles, procurement reform lagging.
• MI6’s real “Q” reveals gadget: surveillance dog poo.

59:00 – Wrap

Europe’s week in contrast: industrial ambition (Germany), structural pain (London), creative churn (VC & AI). Momentum builds — even amid the mess.