The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 361. NYC's Rent Regulation Debate, AI Innovation for CRE, Inside the Loans Driving Distress & Notable Transactions
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Nov 7, 2025 The discussion covers the implications of the government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on markets. They dive into New York City's rent regulation debate and the potential impact of the new mayor on housing affordability. The podcast highlights OpenAI's partnership with Amazon and its effect on AI innovation in commercial real estate. A detailed analysis of October's CMBS delinquency data reveals driving factors behind rising distress. Additionally, notable transactions and the influence of location on industrial property sales are examined.
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Higher Term Premium Widens CRE Gaps
- The Fed's hold on signaling future cuts pushed long-term yields higher, widening the buyer-seller gap in CRE.
- Stephen Bushbaum warns cap rates may drift up and refinancing stays selective as duration risk returns.
NYC Election Injects Multifamily Uncertainty
- New York's mayoral change raises the prospect of a multi-year rent freeze and major regime uncertainty for multifamily owners.
- Stephen Bushbaum says this will pressure stabilized NOI and tighten DSCR cushions for NYC loans.
Pause Before Repricing On Political Headlines
- Tap the brakes on worst-case narratives and wait for policy details to emerge before repricing assets.
- Lonnie Hendry advises lenders and investors to expect inertia and seek common ground as policies are fleshed out.