Gideon Rachman discusses nuclear war, deadly pandemic, and AI risks with Jason Matheny, president of the Rand Corporation and former director for technology policy on President Biden’s National Security Council. They explore China's belief in controlling nuclear escalation, the importance of direct communication, and the urgent need for biodefenses and surveillance systems. The speakers emphasize rethinking national security strategies to address emerging technologies like AI and synthetic biology.
The disruption of Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain would have severe consequences for the global economy, highlighting the need for strengthening the entire semiconductor industry and developing a collective supply chain security strategy with allies.
Technological advancements in AI and synthetic biology pose significant national security risks, emphasizing the importance of strengthening biodefenses, surveillance, and diagnostics, as well as addressing the security risks associated with commercial and research-based synthetic biology.
Deep dives
Taiwan's Dominance in Semiconductors and Supply Chain Risks
Taiwan plays a crucial role in the global semiconductor industry, with about half of all semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced chips being manufactured there. The disruption of Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain would have severe consequences for the global economy. Potential disruptions include a blockade by China or an invasion of Taiwan. China's preparations for these scenarios, along with its strong desire to reunify Taiwan, make these risks significant. To mitigate these risks, the United States is encouraging the building of semiconductor plants domestically, but this alone cannot fully protect against economic fallout. Strengthening the entire semiconductor industry and developing a collective supply chain security strategy with allies are also crucial.
Nuclear War Risks, the Need for Deterrence, and Lessons from History
The risks of nuclear war remain a major concern, both due to conventional risks and advancements in new technologies. A large-scale nuclear war would lead to catastrophic consequences, including the potential for billions of deaths. Recent research supports the earlier models of nuclear winter, which predict a prolonged reduction in sunlight and massive starvation. Furthermore, new technologies, such as cyber attacks against nuclear command and control systems, introduce additional risks. Lessons from history emphasize the importance of direct communication between countries to prevent escalation. However, there are concerns that China's belief in its ability to control escalation during a crisis could be misguided.
AI, Synthetic Biology, and National Security
Technological advancements in AI and synthetic biology pose significant national security risks. AI can amplify other risks, such as bio and nuclear threats, including the development of more effective biological weapons and the embedding of AI in nuclear command and control systems. Synthetic biology allows for the recreation of viruses, raising concerns about engineered pathogens and the potential for a severe pandemic. Progress in addressing these risks has been limited, and more focus is needed on strengthening biodefenses, surveillance, and diagnostics, as well as addressing the security risks associated with commercial and research-based synthetic biology. National security paradigms must adapt to the rapidly evolving landscape of emerging technologies.
Are our politicians doing enough to protect humanity from the potential risk of a nuclear war, a deadly pandemic or AI without guardrails? Gideon discusses these risks with Jason Matheny, president of the Rand Corporation in California and former director for technology policy on President Joe Biden’s National Security Council.
Clips: YahooFinance; Dr Strangelove, Columbia Pictures (1964)