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Macro Voices

MacroVoices #396 Luke Gromen: The Dollar Treasury Feedback Loop, Deconstructed

Oct 5, 2023
01:03:28
Snipd AI
Luke Gromen, Founder of Forest for the Trees, deconstructs the dollar-bond yield relationship and discusses the consequences of a rising dollar on US treasury markets, western sovereign debt markets, and US banks. The tension between China, Russia, and the United States is explored, with a focus on potential economic strategies to harm the US. The limitations of treasuries as a stable asset are analyzed, along with their alternatives. The relationship between treasury yields, stock market performance, and deficits is explained, while crude oil prices and gasoline demand are discussed, indicating a potential recession.
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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The rise in the dollar could have significant consequences for the US treasury market, western sovereign debt markets, and US banks.
  • The feedback loop between US rate hikes and oil price controls has caused a fundamental mismatch in the US economy, leading to the bursting of the global sovereign debt bubble.

Deep dives

The Dollar Bond Yield Relationship and Treasury Yields

Forest for the Trees founder Luke Gromant discusses the dollar bond yield relationship and the recent rise in treasury yields. He suggests that while he still has a long-term bearish view for the dollar, the dollar could potentially rise to new highs in the short term. This rise in the dollar could have significant consequences, including the breaking of the US treasury market, western sovereign debt markets, and US banks. Additionally, it could accelerate the de-dollarization of global commodity markets and lead to oil and gasoline shortages in the United States.

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