MacroVoices #396 Luke Gromen: The Dollar Treasury Feedback Loop, Deconstructed
Oct 5, 2023
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Luke Gromen, Founder of Forest for the Trees, deconstructs the dollar-bond yield relationship and discusses the consequences of a rising dollar on US treasury markets, western sovereign debt markets, and US banks. The tension between China, Russia, and the United States is explored, with a focus on potential economic strategies to harm the US. The limitations of treasuries as a stable asset are analyzed, along with their alternatives. The relationship between treasury yields, stock market performance, and deficits is explained, while crude oil prices and gasoline demand are discussed, indicating a potential recession.
The rise in the dollar could have significant consequences for the US treasury market, western sovereign debt markets, and US banks.
The feedback loop between US rate hikes and oil price controls has caused a fundamental mismatch in the US economy, leading to the bursting of the global sovereign debt bubble.
Russia's potential weaponization of oil and gas could result in the selling of dollar assets by the UK and Europe, impacting the treasury market and destabilizing the stability asset function of treasuries.
Deep dives
The Dollar Bond Yield Relationship and Treasury Yields
Forest for the Trees founder Luke Gromant discusses the dollar bond yield relationship and the recent rise in treasury yields. He suggests that while he still has a long-term bearish view for the dollar, the dollar could potentially rise to new highs in the short term. This rise in the dollar could have significant consequences, including the breaking of the US treasury market, western sovereign debt markets, and US banks. Additionally, it could accelerate the de-dollarization of global commodity markets and lead to oil and gasoline shortages in the United States.
The Impact of Rate Hikes and Oil Price Controls
Gromant explains that the US Federal Reserve's rate hikes, combined with oil price controls implemented by the US government, have led to a fundamental mismatch in the US economy. The rate hikes have adversely affected US shale oil production, which requires higher oil prices to sustain growth. As a result, inflation has returned, increasing the selling pressure on treasuries and causing treasury yields to rise. This feedback loop could lead to the bursting of the global sovereign debt bubble and further instability in the dollar and treasury market.
Vulnerabilities and Economic Warfare
Gromant suggests that Russia and China may seek to leverage economic warfare to weaken the United States without resorting to kinetic warfare. He highlights the potential for Russia to weaponize oil prices, leading to a significant increase in oil prices. This move could have adverse effects on gold, bitcoin, and stock markets, as well as further inflationary pressures. He also explores the vulnerabilities in the US treasury market, including the reliance on foreign buyers and the potential cascading effects of treasury selling by foreign creditors. These vulnerabilities could contribute to the bursting of the global sovereign debt bubble.
Impact of Russia's oil and gas manipulation
Russia is potentially planning to weaponize oil and gas by cutting oil production by 10% and shifting it to China, offering them cheap oil and gas while causing Europe and the UK to have expensive energy sources. Russia's move to sell gas to China at half the price of Europe puts further strain on the energy market. This manipulation of oil and gas could slow China's dollar outflows and result in the selling of dollar assets by the UK and Europe. The consequences include a potential impact on treasury market, accelerating dollar outflows, and destabilizing the stability asset function of treasuries in portfolios.
Concerns over treasuries and alternatives
The stability asset function of treasuries as an offset in portfolios may not work as expected due to rising net effective supply and increasing demand for treasuries in the event of a stock market crash. The convexity of net effective supply of treasuries is expected to increase deficits faster than demand, which may result in the US government's solvency being called into question. As treasuries become less reliable, the alternatives like gold may face short-term downward pressure due to the strong dollar and rising interest rates. The potential failure of treasuries and the lack of clear alternatives create a challenging trading environment.
MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome back, Forest for the Trees founder Luke Gromen. Luke and Eric will deconstruct the dollar-bond yield relationship and discuss TSY yields running away this week, and where they’re headed next.