Conversations on Strategy Podcast – Ep 20 – Dr. Roger Cliff – China’s Future Military Capabilities

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America identifies China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. This podcast examines the process by which China’s military capabilities are developed, the capabilities China’s military is seeking to acquire in the future, and the resulting implications for the US military. To date, all the extant studies have merely described the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army is currently acquiring. The monograph goes further by drawing on the Chinese military’s publications to identify and discuss the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army seeks to acquire in the future. The monograph finds China’s military is engaged in a comprehensive program to field a dominant array of military capabilities for ground, sea, air, space, and cyberspace warfare. Countering these capabilities will require the United States and its allies to engage in an equally comprehensive effort. The monograph’s findings will enable US military planners and policy practitioners to understand the long-term goals of China’s development of military capabilities and to anticipate and counter China’s realization of new capabilities so the United States can maintain its military advantage over the long term.

Read the monograph: https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/960/

Keywords: China, PLA, People’s Liberation Army, cyber warfare, space

Episode Transcript: China’s Military Capabilities

Stephanie Crider (Host)

You’re listening to Conversations on Strategy. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Department of the Army, the US Army, War College, or any other agency of the US government.

Joining me today is Dr. Roger Cliff, a senior intelligence officer and former research professor of Indo-Pacific affairs in the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College. He’s the author of China’s Future Military Capabilities.

It’s great to talk with you again, Roger. Thank you for making time to speak with me.

Dr. Roger Cliff

I’m glad to have this opportunity.

Host

Let’s get right to it. Why did you write this monograph? Why now?

Cliff

This monograph was prompted by my observation that many of the US Army’s long-term planning documents had set the year 2035 as the target for the capabilities that they described the Army seeking to develop. And that struck me because the Chinese military has also identified 2035 as the target year for its modernization program. So, they have a three-step program, the first step of which I guess is now complete, which was to largely complete the process of mechanization by 2020 and then to have basically completed its overall modernization progress by 2035 and then to become a world-class military by mid-century. So, I was struck by the coincidence that both the (US) Army and the Chinese military had chosen 2035 as their target years.

Host

What do we know about China’s process for developing military capabilities?

Cliff

We actually know quite a bit about this process. It starts with the issuing of what are called the military strategic guidelines. These are a set of principles that the Chinese top leadership issues that describe the types of military conflicts the Chinese military needs to prepare for, who the most likely adversaries are, and what the nature of future military conflict is likely to be. They are not issued on a regular basis. They’re issued whenever the leadership feels like they need to be revised or reissued. The most recent revision occurred in 2019. Prior to that, it happened in 2014, 2004, and 1993. So, you can see there isn’t any specific pattern other than I t generally happens about once every 5–10 years. The rest of the process, however, is quite regularized, and it’s tied to the Chinese government’s overall 5-year plan cycle. So, every 5 years, each of the services and the Chinese military issues an overall service strategy, which looks out at the next 20 years and the types of capabilities and port structure the service is going to need over that period. And then, based on that strategy, 10-year plans and 5-year programs are developed. And then, finally, based on those, the specific budgets in terms of research and development, equipment acquisition, and so on are issued for each individual year.

Host

Based on your current research, can you give us an idea of what China’s future military might look like?

Cliff

So, the Chinese military in the future is going to look quite a bit like the US military. And for the US military of today, in particular, they are seeking to acquire many of the same capabilities that we have. Up until today, they have been largely focused on potential conflicts in their backyard, if you will, but they are developing more and more in the direction of being a global military power with long-term power projection assets like aircraft carriers, long-range bombers, aerial refueling aircraft, and those sorts of things. They really seem to aspire to be a military that is in many ways comparable and, of course, hopefully, from their perspective, one day, superior to the US military.

Host

How can the United States and its allies, then, prepare for and counter the PLA of the future?

Cliff

The most important thing to do is recognize what the PLA’s long-term goals are. And by PLA, I mean the People’s Liberation Army, which is what the Chinese military calls itself. I think there’s a lot of focus from the US perspective on the current capabilities of the Chinese military or those capabilities likely to emerge in the next few years. The problem with that approach is for the US to develop capabilities takes much more than just a few years, and the same is true in the Chinese military. So, we need to look at where they’re going over the longer term and not be developing a military to counter the Chinese military of today because when we get to 2035, they will be quite a bit different than they are today. So that’s maybe the most basic principle. But, as I said, the US needs to start thinking about a world in which the Chinese military isn’t going to be just a regional power but a global power. And the US military is likely to encounter the Chinese military increasingly around the world. So this is likely to develop into a global contest for military superiority in which both of the nations are projecting power far abroad. Now, the US has been doing that for many years, but we’ve also become accustomed to being the only nation that’s doing that, especially since the end of the Cold War. And those days are coming to an end. We are going to see a Chinese military in the future, assuming everything goes according to plan, that is very much a worldwide rival to the US military.

Host

What else do we need to know or consider?

Cliff

An important thing to recognize is that a lot of where the Chinese military is going isn’t really a mystery. If you look into their own publications, they tell us what they are planning on doing. They don’t make nearly as many things public as the US military does, so you can’t go on the worldwide web and download all those planning documents that I talked about earlier, but if you look at textbooks, the white papers that the Chinese military publishes periodically, and so on, you can get a pretty good sense of what their intentions are. We need to take those documents seriously and start to prepare now based on what they’re telling us they intend to do in the future.

Host

Do you have any final thoughts you’d like to share before we go?

Cliff

I just want to thank the War College for the opportunity to do this kind of research. This is the type of long-term, in-depth research that one cannot do at very many places. For me, it was tremendously satisfying to have this opportunity, but I think, also, it shows if we devote the time and resources to analyzing the publications of the Chinese military, it’s possible to learn quite a bit of value to the US military-zone planning processes.

Host

If you’re interested in reading the monograph, you’ll find it at press.armywarcollege.edu/parameters/monographs, and it’s called China’s Future Mililitary Capabilities. Roger, it’s always a pleasure working with you. Thank you so much.

Cliff

Thank you. It’s great to be here.

Host

If you enjoyed this episode and would like to hear more, you can find us on any major podcast platform. About the author: Roger Cliff is a senior intelligence officer and former research professor of Indo-Pacific affairs in the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College. His research focuses on China’s military strategy and capabilities and their implications for US strategy and policy. He previously worked for the Center for Naval Analyses, the Atlantic Council, the Project 2049 Institute, the RAND Corporation, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He holds a PhD in international relations from Princeton University; a master of arts degree in Chinese studies from the University of California, San Diego; and a bachelor of science degree in physics from Harvey Mudd College. He is fluent in spoken and written Mandarin Chinese