HousingWire Daily Sub-6% mortgage rates for 2026?
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Oct 10, 2025 
Join Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst with deep insights into housing and mortgage markets, as he predicts a path to sub-6% mortgage rates by 2026. He discusses the impact of Fed policy and the rise of ARM lending, shedding light on who should consider these loans. Mohtashami also reflects on how higher interest rates have actually helped stabilize the housing market, promoting a healthier balance of inventory and demand. Get the scoop on what this all means for potential homebuyers and the future of the housing market!
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Logan’s D.C. Visit
- Logan describes visiting D.C., seeing the Capitol and monument, and joking about visiting the White House.
- He notes timing his visit during a government shutdown for color.
ARM Rates Can Fall Below 6%
- Sub-6% mortgage rates are realistic for ARMs now because short-term rates have fallen and spreads could allow it.
- 30-year fixed rates likely remain above about 5.75% given Fed policy and current spreads.
Evaluate ARMs By Recast Payment
- Consider ARMs if you can afford the recast payment and expect wages to rise before recast.
- Qualify for the recast payment now since modern ARM underwriting is stricter and safer.