A Baltic warning: What Ukraine war means for Europe—and the Russian perspective
Mar 1, 2025
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Baiba Braže, the Latvian Foreign Minister, discusses the pressing security threats to the Baltics from Russia, including cyberattacks and hybrid warfare. She emphasizes the need for heightened defense spending amid rising instability. Dmitri Trenin, a former Russian colonel, offers a contrasting perspective, asserting that decisions about Ukraine should rest with Russia and the U.S., rather than Ukraine itself. Both guests highlight the evolving geopolitical landscape and the urgent need for diverse viewpoints in addressing security challenges in Europe.
Latvia is significantly increasing its defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2026 in response to escalating Russian threats and hybrid warfare.
The former Russian colonel emphasizes that decisions regarding Ukraine's fate should be influenced primarily by Russia and the U.S., not by Ukraine itself.
Deep dives
Latvia's Defense Strategy Amid Russian Aggression
Latvia is significantly increasing its defense spending in response to escalating threats from Russia, pivoting from under 1% of GDP in 2014 to a projected 5% by 2026. The foreign minister emphasizes the necessity of investing in national security as Latvia faces heightened cyber attacks and other forms of aggression. Despite NATO being pivotal for their security, there is a growing recognition that Europe must bolster its defense capabilities independently. The minister also highlights Latvia's historical experience of foreign occupation, driving home the urgency of preparedness in the context of regional stability.
Challenges in Achieving Peace in Ukraine
Discussions around peace negotiations in Ukraine reveal complexities that extend beyond immediate territorial concerns. While various stakeholders, including NATO and the U.S., desire peace, the foreign minister cautions that Russia's objectives during negotiations may undermine foundational goals for Ukraine. He underscores the importance of understanding Moscow's interests, which include weakening U.S. alliances and rebuilding regional influence. This calls for vigilance against any agreements that might favor Russian expansion under the guise of peace.
The Perspective on NATO Expansion and Ukraine's Sovereignty
The potential for Ukraine's NATO membership remains a contentious issue, particularly with U.S. hesitations impacting the discussion. The foreign minister clarifies that the narrative framing NATO as a provocation for Russian aggression is misleading, asserting Ukraine's sovereignty to pursue alliances. While acknowledging NATO's rights regarding membership, he insists the decision ultimately rests with the alliance members. This highlights Ukraine's aspirations amid the ongoing conflict and the necessity for a strategic dialogue regarding its future.
Russia's Asymmetric Warfare Tactics
The podcast sheds light on the sub-conventional warfare tactics employed by Russia against the Baltic states, including cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns. These actions signify a persistent threat that requires bolstering internal security and enhancing defense capabilities. Latvia has invested in both technological advancements and heightened monitoring to counteract Russian operations. The necessity of readiness and swift responses to these hybrid threats underscores the broader implications for regional security and NATO's collective defense commitments.
On the GZERO World Podcast, we're bringing you two starkly different views on Ukraine's future and European security. First, Ian Bremmer speaks with Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže about the growing security threats facing the Baltics—from cyberattacks and disinformation to undersea sabotage in the Baltic Sea. When an oil tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet recently severed a vital power cable between Estonia and Finland, it was a stark reminder of how hybrid warfare is playing out beyond the battlefield. Braže warns that Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine, aiming to weaken US alliances and destabilize Europe. She also pushes back against claims that Ukraine's NATO ambitions provoked the war, calling them “complete nonsense,” and outlines why Latvia is boosting its defense spending to 5% of GDP.
The conversation then shifts to Moscow, where Bremmer speaks with former Russian colonel and ex-Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin. Once considered a pro-Western voice, Trenin’s views now align closely with the Kremlin. He argues that the fate of Ukraine should be decided primarily by Russia and the United States—not Ukraine or Europe.