HousingWire Daily
Logan Mohtashami on negative GDP growth and tariffs
Mar 4, 2025
Logan Mohtashami, a seasoned Lead Analyst, shares insights on the implications of negative GDP growth and its potential impact on mortgage rates. He highlights how the Atlanta Fed's projections link economic challenges to housing stability. The discussion also delves into President Trump's upcoming tariffs and their effects on construction materials like lumber. Mohtashami emphasizes the uncertainty in the job market and the Federal Reserve's potential responses, providing a comprehensive look at the intersection of economics and the housing industry.
28:13
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Quick takeaways
- The Atlanta Fed's GDP model indicates a troubling negative growth of 2.8%, reflecting pre-tariff consumer behavior disruptions and necessitating close economic monitoring.
- Uncertainty surrounding tariff regulations is causing hesitation in the manufacturing sector, impacting builders' confidence and their ability to manage inventory and costs effectively.
Deep dives
Understanding Recent GDP Trends
Recent GDP figures show a surprising decline of negative 2.8%, which is attributed largely to pre-tariff consumer behavior that disrupted import and export components. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker utilizes real-time input data, making it responsive to economic shifts, including weather influences that affected consumption in January. There is concern that as the economy is deliberately slowed down by government policies, it may lead to further weakening of economic indicators. This emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring economic signals as they unfold over the quarter.
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