HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on negative GDP growth and tariffs
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Mar 4, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a seasoned Lead Analyst, shares insights on the implications of negative GDP growth and its potential impact on mortgage rates. He highlights how the Atlanta Fed's projections link economic challenges to housing stability. The discussion also delves into President Trump's upcoming tariffs and their effects on construction materials like lumber. Mohtashami emphasizes the uncertainty in the job market and the Federal Reserve's potential responses, providing a comprehensive look at the intersection of economics and the housing industry.
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Negative GDP Forecast
- The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker forecasts negative growth, partially due to pre-tariff buying.
- Softening consumption data and cold weather also contributed to the negative forecast.
Market Reaction to GDP
- The market's muted reaction to the negative GDP forecast suggests it understands the contributing factors like cold weather.
- If the negative GDP were solely due to falling consumption, the 10-year yield would be much lower.
Impact of Trump's Executive Order on Timber
- Trump's executive order to boost US timber production aims to increase domestic lumber supply.
- However, expanding sawmills and the workforce will take time, potentially causing lumber prices to rise in the short term.