For the first time in 2025, Vancouver home prices have declined—and combined with multi-year lows in sales activity, have we finally reached the bottom of this market cycle?

In this week’s episode, we dive into the May market update for Vancouver, examining why—after four consecutive years of declining home sales—we may be approaching a cyclical turning point. Vancouver just posted its lowest April sales figures since 2019, and for context, this is now the longest recorded slowdown in the GVRD since 2005. But what’s fascinating is that some early signs of life are emerging in other major Canadian markets—especially Toronto. TRREB reported a modest 1.8% increase in sales in April, breaking a brutal two-month, 27% drop. Is this a blip, or the beginning of the stabilization phase?

We break down affordability and consumer confidence, two key drivers of real estate cycles. With mortgage payments on a typical home now at $2,600—the lowest since May 2022—affordability is quietly improving. And with consumer sentiment indexes showing their first significant jump in over a year, buyer psychology could be shifting. Should the Bank of Canada cut rates in June, as markets are pricing in, it could bring payments back to 2022 levels—when sales volumes were 52% higher.

We then turn to Toronto, where the situation is more extreme. GTA sales remain 21% lower year-over-year, with condo sales down a staggering 30%—the lowest sales figures seen in 25 years (excluding COVID lockdowns). Inventory is ballooning, up 51% overall and 83% for condos in the 416. And prices across all asset types have dropped: condos are down 6.8%, detached homes 5.4%. Meanwhile, the rental market is under pressure too. With 16,000 rental listings, GTA rental inventory is at an all-time high. Rents are now 13% below peak levels, and investor demand has fallen off a cliff. But with prices and rates declining faster than rents, even cash flow metrics are beginning to improve—though we’re still far from equilibrium.

We then circle back to Vancouver. Despite the sales slowdown, condos have shown surprising resilience—both in sales and price. Condo transactions are down just 56% from peak levels (compared to 71% for detached homes) and prices have only slipped 2% from their highs, outperforming detached and townhouse segments. In fact, when looking at the broader GVRD—excluding downtown Vancouver—condo prices have barely moved.

New listings in Vancouver came in slightly below 2024 levels but remain steady, and inventory continues to climb, reaching an 11-year high for April. With buyers still largely on the sidelines, the sales-to-active ratio has held in balanced market territory for 12 straight months—14% overall. The days-on-market average ticked up to 16, and foreclosure activity rose slightly but remains a minor share of total listings.

Finally, we close with price movement: The Home Price Index fell by 0.5% this month, the first drop of the year, bringing the average Vancouver home price to $1.184M. The average price dropped by $20,000, and prices are now 1.8% lower than they were a year ago.

Whether we’ve hit the bottom or are simply sliding along it remains to be seen—but the data suggests that a turning point could be on the horizon. Be sure to tune in for our full analysis, charts, and predictions—so you’re prepared for what’s next in this shifting market.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

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dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

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www.thevancouverlife.com

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