China's economic challenges are leading to a more aggressive foreign policy, as the government seeks to stabilize industries amid global tensions.
The complexities of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan highlight logistical challenges and the risk of escalating U.S.-China conflict.
China's demographic decline poses serious internal stability threats, potentially driving more assertive foreign policy as its workforce shrinks.
Deep dives
Deteriorating Economy and Aggression
China's economy is facing significant challenges, leading to a more aggressive foreign policy stance. The government aims to stabilize its industries and carve out secure markets to buffer against anticipated global tensions. This reaction underscores a push by the Chinese leadership to assert dominance, especially under Xi Jinping's expectation of 'stormy seas' ahead. As the economy falters, the state apparatus is being employed to control social and economic conditions, reflecting a shift towards authoritarian measures to maintain stability.
Military Escalation and Taiwan
The hypothetical scenario of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan reveals the complexities of military capability and readiness. While China has built up its military capabilities, the logistical challenges of conducting such an operation across the Taiwan Strait remain daunting. Taiwanese defenses, along with U.S. military bases’ proximity, would complicate the Chinese strategy, which might include a Pearl Harbor-style attack on U.S. installations. However, U.S. intervention could be triggered early on, raising the risk of direct conflict between the two powers.
Trade Wars and Geopolitical Rivalry
The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China reflects deeper geopolitical tensions that could lead to conflict. Tariffs and economic restrictions, while aimed at reducing dependence, often exacerbate hostilities and create barriers to cooperation. Historical parallels suggest that economic rivalries can spiral into direct military confrontations, as seen in World War I and II. The current trajectory suggests that these tensions are likely to escalate, further complicating diplomatic relations between the countries.
China's Fall and Demographic Challenges
China's economic model, which has relied on rapid industrialization and population growth, is now encountering severe demographic challenges, including a declining birth rate. This decline, exacerbated by decades of the one-child policy, means China is bracing for a significantly aging population and shrinking workforce. As economic growth stagnates, the pressure on the state to maintain stability increases, potentially leading to further aggressive foreign policy moves. Thus, the demographic shift represents both a threat to China's internal cohesion and a catalyst for heightened global tensions.
Paths to Avoiding Conflict
To prevent armed conflict with China, it is crucial to engage in a balanced approach that combines strong military deterrence with diplomatic engagement. The goal would be to establish a Cold War-style containment strategy, where both powers can compete without escalating to direct conflict. This offers a framework for managing rising tensions while asserting U.S. interests and preventing unchecked Chinese aggression. Ultimately, understanding the historical context of international order can guide policymakers toward maintaining peace while navigating the complexities of U.S.-China relations.
What if the new Cold War with China turns hot? Just asking questions.
China's rise, decline, or potential for conflict is often clouded by propaganda and oversimplification. This episode of Just Asking Questions examines China's real economic, military, and geopolitical trajectory, focusing on Taiwan tensions, trade wars, and demographic challenges.
Joining us is Michael Beckley, a Tufts University political science professor and co-author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China. He is also a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. His research argues that China's peaking power makes it a unique threat, blending insights on its economy, military, and ambitions.
