Michael Beckley: China Is Dangerously Weak

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Apr 17, 2025

Could China’s pressure on Taiwan turn into a war, and what would an invasion actually involve? The discussion ranges from U.S. strategy, trade wars, and China’s military modernization to demographic decline, Hong Kong, and Xi Jinping’s increasingly assertive rule.

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INSIGHT

China's Taiwan Invasion Challenge

Invading Taiwan would be the most complex military operation in modern history, requiring full control of air and sea.
China's military might has mass but coordinating such an invasion under fire is likely beyond their practical capability now.

INSIGHT

Strategic Importance of Taiwan

Taiwan is an unsinkable aircraft carrier at a strategic maritime crossroads vital for global trade.
Defending Taiwan preserves international order and U.S. allied credibility, vital for deterring further expansion.

INSIGHT

Trade War Reflects Deeper Rivalry

The U.S.-China trade war stems from deeper geopolitical rivalry and mutual fears over dependence and vulnerability.
Economic conflict escalates hostility and mirrors historical great power tensions before wars.

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What if the new Cold War with China turns hot? Just asking questions.

China's rise, decline, or potential for conflict is often clouded by propaganda and oversimplification. This episode of Just Asking Questions examines China's real economic, military, and geopolitical trajectory, focusing on Taiwan tensions, trade wars, and demographic challenges.

Joining us is Michael Beckley, a Tufts University political science professor and co-author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China. He is also a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. His research argues that China's peaking power makes it a unique threat, blending insights on its economy, military, and ambitions.

Sources Referenced:

Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, by Michael Beckley and Hal Brands
"China's Hypersonic Weapons Test 'Concerning': Gen. Milley," by David Rubenstein for Bloomberg
World Bank: China's fertility rate
Full text of Xi Jinping's report at the 19th CPC National Congress
China's gross domestic product compared to the United States'
"Chenggong, one of the largest new ghost town in Asia," by Matteo Damiani
"Joe Biden says China will 'eat our lunch' on infrastructure," by SCMP Clips

Chapters

00:00 Coming up: China's economic challenges and rising aggression
01:13 What if China invaded Taiwan tomorrow?
05:17 Military capabilities and invasion scenarios for Taiwan
10:28 America's interests and the strategic importance of Taiwan
15:13 The Trump administration's trade war with China
20:47 Economic rivalry and the new Cold War
26:03 China's military modernization and hypersonic threats
31:10 Assessing China's actual military strength
36:14 Lessons from Hong Kong and implications for Taiwan
41:23 Demographic decline and economic stagnation
46:30 China's one-child policy and irreversible population trends
51:39 Xi Jinping's vision and the roots of Chinese authoritarianism
57:05 The nature of China's political and economic system
01:02:15 Rising assertiveness and wolf warrior diplomacy
01:07:28 Avoiding war and imagining a path to peace
01:13:09 Strategic missteps and the importance of deterrence
01:16:18 Appreciating global order and what's at stake

The post Michael Beckley: China Is Dangerously Weak appeared first on Reason Magazine.