HousingWire Daily Marina Walsh on MBA’s 2026 forecast for mortgage rates and home prices
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Oct 28, 2025 Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis at the Mortgage Bankers Association, shares key insights about the future of the mortgage industry. She forecasts a rise in origination volume to $2.2 trillion by 2026, despite a significant drop in industry employment. Marina discusses the challenges of recapture rates and the impact of legislative changes. Affordability remains a concern with fluctuating regional prices, while macroeconomic factors like inflation pose risks. Lastly, she highlights the need for efficiency to boost profitability.
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Modest Origination Growth Forecast
- MBA projects origination volume will rise about 8% to $2.2 trillion in 2026, with two-thirds purchase and one-third refi.
- Growth is incremental and will largely flatten over the next three years rather than spike.
Be Ready For Short Refi Windows
- Prepare for short-lived refinance opportunities by using predictive analytics and staying ready to act fast.
- Target jumbo, ARM, and home-equity opportunities when market windows open.
Recapture Rates Still Low
- Recapture rates have been low historically, around one-in-five loans recaptured outside peak programs.
- Trigger-leads legislation in March 2026 and better data could improve recapture, but room for improvement remains.